The election results looked impressive as announced: 1,410 votes for the $4.4 million bond to build a new fire hall in Evergreen, 871 votes against. Expressed as percentages of the votes cast, that’s 61.8 percent Yes, 38.2 percent No. Better than three to two in favor; not bad.
Viewed in a different light, however, the result was less impressive.
Ballots were mailed to 4,253 voters. Only 2,283 ballots were returned, and two of those were blank. The turnout, then, was 53.6 percent of registered voters. Registered voters is a subset of the voting eligible population, so the percentage of ballots returned could have been less than 50 percent of the VEP.
By comparison, the turnout in the general election in Flathead County in presidential years runs 10–20 percent higher. Using a mail ballot for the special fire hall bond election undoubtedly resulted in a higher turnout than would have occurred had a vote-at-your-polling-place election been held — but putting the issue to the voters in a special election probably depressed the turnout compared to the likely turnout in the general election.
Although the bond issue was approved by a majority of the votes cast, it was approved by only a plurality (33.2 percent) of the district’s registered voters, and by an even smaller plurality of the VEP. This is neither unusual nor comforting.
Most of the votes in this election may have been cast before the nature of the current economic situation became known. Whether the knowledge that Wall Street was begging for a $700 billion bailout from the taxpayers would have caused voters in Evergreen to vote No is a question I cannot answer at this time, but I suspect that voters knowing the nation was going to pay for the sins of reckless securities traders would not have improved the bond’s chances for approval.
The Evergreen fire department’s decision to put the issue to the voters before the general election was not, of course, an attempt to get ahead of the meltdown on Wall Street. As I noted in my 12 September posting:
This is a first bite of the apple election. It’s authors think the bond has a better chance of being approved if it’s not on the same ballot as the other two issues. I’m not sure that’s a winning strategy — but I am sure it’s a strategy that will generate much ill will between the Evergreen Fire Department and the 911 board if the fire hall bond passes and the 911 center bond does not.
The first bite of the apple strategy succeeded. In five weeks, we will learn whether the voters will approve the $6.9 million 911 center bond, and/or the $10 million land and water conservation bond.