Writing in today’s Washington Post, Chris Cillizza lists potential Vice Presidential candidates for both parties. The last on his list for the Democrats? Montana’s governor, Brian Schweitzer:
The governor of Montana is among the most colorful politicians in the country and is also the face of Democrats’ resurgence in the Mountain West. Schweitzer has proven to be an innovator on the campaign trail (he was the first candidate in the country to take seniors to Canada to buy cheap prescription drugs when he challenged Sen. Conrad Burns in 2000) and in the governor’s office. His service as vice-chairman of the DGA should keep him on the minds of the chattering class in the coming months. Veepstakes: Let the Speculation Begin!
Cillizza could have added that Schweitzer is one of just a handful of Democratic politicians who can appeal to white men — Senator James Webb, from Virginia is another — an especially important factor if Clinton or Obama is at the head of the ticket.
Would Schweitzer do it? Probably, but only if he were convinced that the Democrats can win in November — and a Democratic victory is far from a sure thing.
If he were in the sixth year of his governorship, running for Vice President would have few drawbacks, even if he lost. But Schweitzer is running for re-election this year, and that complicates matters immensely.
The national Democratic convention will be held in late summer, long after the Montana primary. If Schweitzer want to run for governor, he must file by 20 March. It’s possible that the Democratic nominee will be known by then, but I think the odds that the Democratic candidate for VP will be chosen before 20 March are slim to nonexistent. So in all likelihood, Schweitzer would be the Democratic nominee for governor of Montana at the time he was asked to join the national ticket.
That would put Montana’s Democrats in one hell of a bind. If Schweitzer ran for both governor and VP — I don’t know whether this is legal; probably is — there are four possible outcomes: he wins both elections; he loses both; he loses in Montana, but wins nationally; he loses nationally, but wins in Montana. Only one outcome — he loses as VP but wins as governor — ensures a Democratic governor in 2009. Were he to win both elections, he could not serve as governor. In that case, I think his lieutenant governor, John Bohlinger, a semi-apostate Republican, would become governor. Were a special election required, the Republicans could win.
If he were to accept the nomination for VP, and withdraw as the nominee for governor, the Democrats would have to replace him — and frankly, there’s no Democrat in Montana who approaches his stature that would be available as a replacement. Montana is still a Republican state, and with Schweitzer off the ticket, I think the Republicans would have an excellent shot at capturing the statehouse.
If Schweitzer sticks to running for governor, he’ll be re-elected. That would leave Montana with a Democratic governor even if the Republicans keep the White House. But if Schweitzer runs, both the White House and Montana’s statehouse could end up being occupied by Republicans.
Schweitzer is not the only possibility that Democrats have for VP. But he is the only viable possibility that Democrats have for Governor of Montana. Proud as Montana Democrats might be that their governor is being identified as a possible Vice Presidential candidate, it would be in their enlightened self-interest to send him a "Brian, please stay home," letter.