Flathead Memo Archives, 16–31 July 2016
31 July 2016
Thoughts on Bernie's supporters who still aren’t ready for Hillary
In 1968, I was a 21-year-old college student who spent his spring break in Ashland, Wisconsin, campaigning for Eugene McCarthy. To say I was not overjoyed when Hubert H. Humphrey became the Democratic nominee understates my reaction. And I refused to muster the demanded humility when the wise men and women of the Democratic Party lectured me on the necessity of getting over my outrage and, in the name of party unity, proclaiming my undying love for Humphrey.
Today, those lectures are being recycled by Hillary Clinton’s supporters, who are aghast and outraged that some supporters of Bernie Sanders might defect to the Green Party’s Jill Stein, or worse, to the GOP’s Donald Trump. They’re strongly demanding that Bernie’s supporters, all of them, get over their disappointment and, together, not just vote for Hillary, but love her.
I voted for Humphrey in 1968 — the prospect of President Nixon scared me into doing so — and although I supported Bernie, I’ll grit my teeth and vote for Hillary in November. The prospect of President Trump scares the bejesus out of me.
I think that if President, Hillary will sign progressive legislation, but not initiate much progressive executive action. I worry that her belligerence may lead to war. But her shortcomings notwithstanding, I’d much rather have her in the White House, entrusted with nuclear weapons, than Trump, who is an ignoramus, a racist, a dodgy businessman, and a borderline sociopath.
This is where my conscience leads me. But I recognize that others who supported Bernie cannot, in good conscience, at least at this time, bring themselves to vote for Hillary. Therefore, I’m not going to lecture them on the consequence’s of their choice, or beg them to reconsider their decision. Instead, I’m going to work with them on issues on which we agree, and agree to disagree, as amicably as possible, on other matters.
30 July 2016
In matters of security, a little paranoia can be a useful thing
Local candidates should not assume that their campaigns are immune to the kind of hacks that currently bedevil the Democrats. Many Democratic legislative campaigns, for example, use Act Blue, which the New York Times reports was targeted by hackers, for online fundraising, and NGP VAN for managing their voter database and walking lists.
Thus, campaigns at all political levels are at some risk of losing their data, or having it corrupted.
The cloud, your computer, and your vendors’ computers, can be hacked. So too, I suppose, can be data stored on a CD locked in a safety deposit box at a bank, but it’s a lot harder to do. Online data can be hacked from Moscow, but data stored in a bank’s safety deposit box cannot.
My advice. In matters of security, a little paranoia can be a useful thing. Even if you think the probability of your campaign’s being hacked is perishingly small, export your data, both as plain text and application formatted files, and save the files on non-rewriteable CDs or DVDs. If your computer does not have an optical drive, CD/DVD burners are available at reasonable prices at Best Buy and similar vendors.
29 July 2016
Now that the Democratic National Convention is over…
I began watching the national political conventions in 1956, and for many years I watched them gavel-to-gavel. I almost attended the infamous 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago. Once, conventions were interesting events where decisions were made. Now they’re four-day propaganda productions, the secular variants of evangelical tent revivals, choreographed to deliver the party line and coronate the annointed. Real decision-making and honest debate are avoided. Therefore, I watch a few speeches, yawn, read a few news reports, yawn, mow the lawn and read a good book. I have but a few observations:
28 July 2016
Green Party trying to put Jill Stein on Montana ballot
Green Party members in Montana are collecting signatures to put Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein on the ballot in November. According to the GP’s ballot access page for Montana, the signature gatherers have until 17 August to collect 5,000 signatures of registered voters.
Ryan Moore of Bozeman is the Green’s statewide coordinator. There are regional coordinators in Helena, Billings, Missoula, Great Falls, and the Flathead. The email address for Missoula coordinator Dani Breck is firstname.lastname@example.org, which suggests that the resurgence of the Greens is in part a consequence of Bernie Sanders’ losing the Democratic nomination to Hillary Clinton. Paul Daughtry is the coordinator for the Flathead.
The Green Party presidential candidate was on Montana’s general election ballot in 2000 and 2004. In 2000, the GP’s candidate was Ralph Nader, who returned to Montana’s 2004 and 2008 ballots as an independent candidate.
If Montana’s Greens succeed in getting Jill Stein on the ballot, they’ll provide an opportunity for leftists and disgruntled Bernieites to cast a protest vote for a left wing candidate.
Most Democratic Convention speeches are at 9th grade level
Most speeches at the Democratic convention are written at the ninth grade level. That’s the rough average of scores on the Flesch-Kincaid and other readability tests for the as delivered texts of the speeches that I’ve examined (www.online-utility.org has a free online readability checker that includes the Flesch-Kincaid and other readability tests).
A speech, of course, is more than just prose. It’s an oral argument and a theatrical performance. How persuasive it is depends not just on the facts and logic presented, but on the speaker’s skill in bring his words and arguments alive in a way that captures the attention and engages the emotions of his audience. Thus, applying a readability test to the text of a speech provides a measure, useful I think, of the speech’s verbal complexity, but it tells us nothing about the speech’s persuasiveness and emotional impact when the speaker delivers it. Spoken language, incidentally, should be simpler than written language.
26–27 July 2016
Note to readers
We had to stand down yesterday and today, but intend to resume blogging tomorrow.
25 July 2016
Bill to allow bicycles in the Bob is political mischief
At the Flathead Beacon, Dillon Tabish reports that Utah’s Republican senators, Mike Lee and Orrin Hatch, have introduced S.B. 3205, the Human-Powered Travel in Wilderness Act, which would legalize the use of bicycles in the Bob Marshall and other designated wildernesses.
Tabish reports Sen. Jon Tester opposes the bill, but that neither Sen. Steve Daines nor Rep. Ryan Zinke has announced a position on the bill.
This political mischief is being pushed by thrill seekers and the people who manufacture and sell mountain bicycles (disclosure: I ride a mountain bicycle, but never in the mountains, forests, or cross-country). Behind them are others who hope to open designated wilderness to motorized transportation, and ultimately, to repeal the Wilderness Act and open the Bob and all public lands to natural resource extraction and commercial development such as luxury resorts for the one percent.
S.B. 3205 has little chance of passing, but it can’t be ignored. Thus, it diverts money and manpower from existing and future conservation campaigns.
24 July 2016
Will 2016 be the year of campaigning dangerously?
Secret Service protection of the candidates probably will be exceptionally aggressive this election. In the last 104 years, three presidential candidates have been shot, one of them fatally, and another targeted by a person wielding a knife:
Notes on the eve of the Democratic National Convention
Wikileaks email release proves DNC and Debbie really were conspiring against Bernie Sanders. No surprise here. Hillary Clinton lost to Barack Obama in 2008, but she never stopped running for president — and her supporters from 2008, DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz prominent among them, never stopped working for Hillary and against everyone else. Some members of the DNC unwisely put their anti-Sanders thoughts and schemes in emails. But most of the conspiring was done by telephone and in face-to-face conversations. Now, thanks to the DNC’s being hacked, probably by a Russian, the truth is out, and according to CNN, Debbie is out as a convention speaker.
Update. Now she’s also out as head of the DNC. If she wants to help Democrats, she’ll lock herself in her house in Florida, emerging only after the convention concludes to announce that she’s withdrawing as a candidate for re-election to Congress.
If Hillary become president, she will sign progressive legislation, but she probably won’t ask for it. I doubt she would veto it. Her choice of Tim Kaine for vice president instead of Elizabeth Warren has convinced some supporters of Sanders that she’s closing her door to progressive Democrats, but I don’t agree with that analysis. If progressives want progressive legislation, they must turn their attention to electing progressive Democrats to Congress and to state and local legislative and executive offices. Tim Kaine improves Hillary’s chances of winning the election. That’s a plus for progressive who understand their enlightened self-interest.
Useful links for Democrats following the convention:
- Official convention website: www.demconvention.com
- Democratic platform: official page, with download link
- Twitter: @mtdems
- Instagram: @montanadems
- Facebook: Montana Democratic Party
23 July 2016
Hillary’s VP. Sen. Tim Kaine was not my first choice for vice president on the Democratic ticket. I disagree with his support for the Trans Pacific Partnership and so-call free trade agreements, and dislike his willingness to coddle the big banks. But he clearly has the experience, intellect, and temperament to be president — and to be a very good president. In fact, I wish he were at the top of the ticket.
Kalispell City Airport. All flight operations at the Kalispell City Airport could be moved to Glacier Park International Airport, which has a longer runway, better navigational aids, and probably slightly better weather. The City of Kalispell should close the airport and donate the land to School District 5, which would then have a 100-year site for a replacement for Flathead High School.
When campgrounds become rural ghettos. Long time friends, now retired, who spend several months a year as campground hosts in state and national parks in Oregon and California, report that these campgrounds are overcrowded, and that even with whopping big camping fees of $33 a night, infrastructure is decaying. Years ago, campgrounds on public lands were quiet places. Sometimes I could car camp in remote places for a week and be the only one there. No reservations or fees were required. Now campsite must be reserved months in advance, there are double digit fees, and the adjacent campsite is always occupied, usually by a beer guzzling barbarian with a bone rattling boombox and enough Coleman gas lanterns to illuminate a football field. That’s why I now stay at the Hilton or sleep in my car at a local Walmart.
22 July 2016
If you see someone walking the bypass — CALL THE COPS!
That’s the latest message from Mickey Lapp of the Kalispell Bypass Team. Every Friday, Lapp blasts out an email with an attachment updating the state of the project’s construction, and lets readers know what to expect during the coming week.
Today’s update includes a rubricated, italicized, and partially bolded, paragraph warning there is no public access to the areas under construction:
The public is reminded to stay clear of work areas and construction zones. There is NO public access through any construction area, work zone or trail system and the public is reminded NOT to walk, drive or ride through work areas or construction zones. If you witness trespassing through work areas or construction zones, please notify Flathead Law Enforcement officials immediately.
Wow. That’s laying down the law. Donald Trump could not have done it better.
There may be concerns about theft and vandalism, but I suspect the major concern is liability if someone walking the bypass sprains an ankle. On weekends, when the project is shut down, on some stretches under construction, for example, between Two and Three Mile Drives, the bypass provides a wide and smooth walking route that, frankly, is a lot safer than walking along a road with traffic.
Of course, one way of obviating the temptation to walk the bypass on a weekend would be for the construction company to work on the weekends and finish the project faster.
In the meantime, if you spot an outlaw walker strolling along the bypass this weekend, think twice before hitting 911 on speeddial and screaming “Help, help! There’s trespass on the bypass.” The constable tends to see red when he receives that kind of call.
Brother Orangehair: the system is rigged and “I alone can fix it”
A man on a white horse, a man with a messiah complex, last night shouted to the nation that he, Donald J. Trump, is the only man who can make America great again. The longer he spoke, the more distinct the adumbrations of jackboots clicking on cobblestones.
He promised to restore law and order, “build a great border wall to stop illegal immigration,” reduce taxes and regulations, repeal and replace Obamacare, “rescue kids from failing schools,” defeat the “barbarians of ISIS,” build roads and highways and bridges, “make America rich again,” and more.
In his most chilling and bizarre moment, he said:
Nobody knows the system better than me, which is why I alone can fix it. I have seen firsthand how the system is rigged against our citizens, just like it was rigged against Bernie Sanders. He never had a chance.
But his supporters will join our movement, because we will fix his biggest issue: Trade deals that strip our country of jobs and the distribution of wealth in the country.
Millions of Democrats will join our movement, because we are going to fix the system so it works fairly and justly for each and every American.
Mein Gott! “I alone.” Can he actually believe that Bernie’s supporters will defect to the Republican party after witnessing its presidential nominee, in a epic, high decibel, rant, declare himself the savior, and not just the savior, but the one and only savior, of American civilization?
Thanks to Trump’s scaring the bejesus out of progressives, Hillary Clinton won a lot of votes last night.
TheWashington Post has a annotated transcript of the speech as delivered.
21 July 2016
Ted’s payback, Newt’s fear mongering, Pence’s bland acceptance
Will Trump’s acceptance speech tonight echo Nixon’s in 1968? Trump’s tone and words might differ from Nixon’s, but Trump already is proclaiming himself the guardian of law ‘n order in a manner reminiscent of Nixon’s successful exploitation of that theme 48 years ago. Nixon’s speech (download PDF for printing) was masterful as well as diabolical.
Pence’s speech was received well, but as a vice presidential acceptance speech it paled in comparison to both Hubert Humphrey’s “But not Senator Goldwater” speech, (9.7 MB PDF) in 1964, and Al Gore’s “It is time for them to go” speech in 1992.
20 July 2016
Jon Tester joins Tim Kaine in kissing banks and dissing consumers
Sen. Time Kaine would make a better vice president than Mike Pence. But his stock at Flathead Memo dropped to the basement this afternoon after the Huffington Post reported that Kaine is kissing-up to the big banks and failing to protect consumers:
Kaine signed two letters on Monday urging federal regulators to go easy on banks ― one to help big banks dodge risk management rules, and another to help small banks avoid consumer protection standards.
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
On the small bank side, Kaine pressed Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray to exempt “community banks and credit unions” from new rules. Doing so would leave these institutions, which include banks with up to $10 billion in assets, more lightly regulated than they were before the financial crisis. The letter, sent on Monday, was signed by 69 other senators [including Jon Tester].
Small banks were not, for the most part, involved in the subprime mortgage crisis. But many commit other consumer protection abuses. These violations do not spark massive financial downturns, but they can be real problems for the households that get ripped off.
As Kaine joins the deregulatory fight, several other lawmakers are pushing the CFPB in the opposite direction. On Wednesday, 28 senators sent a letter to the agency urging them to toughen up their new rule against abusive payday lending. Kaine didn’t sign it.
Sen. Jeff Merkley did, as did Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and even Sen. Chuck Schumer.
If Clinton wants to attract the supporters of Bernie Sanders, choosing Tim Kaine as her vice president is the wrong way to do it.
Flathead Memo predicts Hillary will tap Sen. Tim Kaine for VP
Hillary Clinton will announce her choice for vice president Friday or Saturday, probably in Miami, FL. I predict she’ll choose 58-year-old Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia, a former governor and lieutenant governor of that state, as well as a man with executive experience at the municipal government level.
There are other names in the mix, such as Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, 65, a former governor of Iowa, and retired admiral James Stavridis, a foreign policy expert who has never run for, let alone held, elective office.
I think she’s settled on Kaine, and that the discussion of other running mates amounts to misdirection, an attempt to keep the discussion, and suspense, going and to distract voters from the Republican convention.
Kaine would a good choice. His credentials are excellent, and he has the right temperament for the job. My preference, however, is 59-year-old Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon.
19 July 2016
Last night in Cleveland, Rudy and Gen. Flynn howled at the moon
Giuliani railed against “Islamic terrorism,” his decibel level so high that 100 miles away in Toledo, the dead awoke. On Twitter, Dave Itzkoff inserted Rudy’s mug into Edward Munch’s Der Schrei der Natur, but still failed to do full justice to the occasion.
Flynn, the retired three-star whose trial balloon as Trump’s running mate thudded like lead on concrete, denounced Hillary Clinton as a crook, led the crowd in a chant of “Lock her up,” and made himself the leading nominee for this election’s Gen. James Mattoon Scott award.
Sen. Joni Ernst, the Iowa pig castrater, and retired national guard Lt. Colonel, claimed the FBI says ISIS is active in all 50 states. That’s probably true: the internet reaches everywhere.
Rep. Ryan Zinke, who spoke last, and who spoke to the most empty seats, did not corroborate her claim. Neither did he try to lead chants, a wise decision for which I commend him. Compared to Flynn, et al, he delivered rather bland comments, and of course reminded everyone that once he was a Navy SEAL, then withdrew to allow the pastor of the day, a blond woman in a red dress, to lead — and lead, and lead, and lead — the crowd in prayer.
The person for whom a prayer should be said this morning is Melania Trump, Donald’s wife. Not a native speaker of English, she trusted the people writing her speech. Unfortunately, they appear to have misappropriated some of the speech that Michelle Obama delivered to the Democratic National Convention eight years ago. Quite clearly, those speechwriters didn’t run the final draft through a plagiarism checker. I’d fire them.
Updated at 15:17:26 MDT. That Melania’s speech contained unattributed material from Michelle Obama’s speech now is beyond doubt. But who is responsible remains a mystery. Emerging reports point fingers at Mrs. Trump. The only thing that’s seems perfectly clear is that no one was smart enough to run the final draft through a plagiarism checker. And the Trump campaign’s response to the mess? “Plagiarism? What plagiarism? We didn’t plagiarize, we won’t plagiarize again, Hillary Clinton made us do it, and whatever the facts, the strong never apologize.”
18 July 2016
First, Ryan Zinke saw the money — then, he saw the light
No, not the Lord’s light. Heaven forbid that I would accuse him of that. He found the ultraviolet indoor tanning lights. In particular, he found that the Affordable Care Act imposes a 10 percent excise tax on indoor tanning salons — and on 20 October 2015, 40 days after his re-election campaign received a $1,000 contribution from the American Suntanning Association’s PAC, he signed up as a co-sponsor of H.R. 2698, Rep. Tom Price’s (R-GA) Tanning Tax Repeal Act of 2015.
Zinke was one of approximately 30 recipients of four-figure donations from the ASTA PAC. The parent organization, the American Suntanning Association, was formed in 2012, reported JAMA Dermatol in May, 2013:
…as an all-tanning-salon-owner organization by a group of owners of tanning salon chains. The ASA is “… dedicated to increasing public awareness about the facts associated with moderate UV exposure …”. 2 Examination of their website reveals messages quite similar to those found on the ITA website.3 The ASA website claims that IT is beneficial for vitamin D production, satisfies a need for moderate, responsible UV exposure, and even suggests that IT is an affordable self-treatment for cosmetic skin diseases that can be used to replace dermatologist-monitored phototherapy.4 There is also a focus on the small business nature of the tanning salon industry, which may be intended to convince legislators that tanning salon regulations could hurt business owners. The ASA site does not disclose published research that suggests IT beds are an ineffective method of promoting vitamin D production, or that responsible exposure can be difficult as UV levels in beds tend to vary quite unpredictably.5 [Quote via HHS Public Access.]
Price’s bill died, but the tanning tax repeal was rolled into H.R. 3672, an attempt to use the budget reconciliation process to repeal the ACA. H.R. 3672 passed the House 240–181, with 13 not voting, on 6 January. Zinke voted for the bill, which President Obama vetoed two days later. On 2 February, the House’s attempt to override the veto failed, leaving the ACA and the tanning tax in place.
Will Zinke see the light on the tanning tax again? Probably. Will his campaign see more of the tanners’ greenbacks? I’ll be watching.
Ryan Zinke burns campaign cash 2.6 times as fast as Denise Juneau
As of 30 June, Rep. Ryan Zinke’s re-election campaign had raised a lot of money — $3.7 million — and spent a lot of money — $2.6 million ($1.2 million on postage and printing), leaving him with $1.3 million in the bank.
His burn rate: 76 percent.
That’s 2.6 times the 29 percent burn rate for Denise Juneau’s campaign, which has raised $1.3 million, spent $330k, and has $810k in the bank.
16 July 2016
Marcella Hazan’s tomato sauce reminds me of awful school lunches
And that’s not a good thing, not that she’ll ever know it, having died three years ago. She was a legend for Italian cooking, American style. But her tomato sauce, “…perhaps [her] most famous recipe…,” reports the New York Times, is nothing more than canned tomatoes boiled up with butter and fried onions (she removed the onions before inflicting the sauce on her pasta). For some reason, her recipe appeared on my Facebook feed this morning, triggering memories of school lunches I’d successfully repressed for almost 60 years.
We were served spaghetti in tomato sauce. The menu called it “Italian spaghetti.” I called it…well, I don’t use those words on this blog. What got slopped on my plate looked and tasted like worms in blood. I doubt it contained any butter. And it looked like worms in blood when I dumped it in the trash.
After that ordeal, decades passed before I discovered that spaghetti in tomato sauce could be tasty — and that discovery required years of experimenting in the kitchen. But eventually I learned what Hazan never did: meat, olives, and bell peppers, are what make spaghetti sauce great.
Here’s what you’ll need:
- 1.25 pounds lean ground beef, canned sliced mushrooms, and coarsely chopped sweet onion.
- 1 large orange bell pepper, cut into thumbnail sized chunks.
- 1 can large ripe olives, cut in two eyeball style.
- 1 ounce freshly shredded sharp cheddar cheese.
- 1 jar of Tuscan tomato pasta sauce with roasted garlic.
- Cayenne pepper and smoked paprika.
Here’s what you’ll do:
- After browning the beef, mushrooms, and onion, in super extra double ultra virgin olive oil, stir in the Tuscan sauce, adding a bit of water. Bring to a boil.
- Back off the heat a bit, add the cayenne and paprika — don’t be parsimonious with the cayenne — stir, then sprinkle in the shredded cheddar. Stir until the cheddar melts and blends with the sauce. Add the bell pepper and olives. Simmer for ten minutes or so, until the bell pepper is cooked to your preference.
- Apply a generous portion to freshly cooked capellini, anoint with parmesan cheese, and thank Divine Providence that you didn’t employ Marcella’s recipe.