County commissioner. Incumbent Joe Brenneman has run an aggressive campaign, citing his solid record of accomplishments. He has significant Republican support. And so far he’s raised much more money than Pam Holmquist, his Republican challenger. Holmquist’s assets are Flathead County’s heavily Republican political demographics, and an ugly anti-incumbent mood amongst voters.
Assessment: tossup.
House District 3, Columbia Falls. Swing district. Democratic newcomer Zac Perry is running against Republican Jerry O’Neil and Independent Shawn Guymon. O’Neil, a former legislator, is well known and generally well liked. Guymon is a newcomer. The question is whether Guymon will deprive O’Neil of enough votes that Perry wins. Don’t count on it.
Assessment: advantage, O’Neil.
House District 4, Whitefish. Democratic leaning district. Will Hammerquist, the Democratic nominee to replace retiring Rep. Mike Jopek, has raised twice as much money as Republican challenger, Derek Skees, and run a clean, efficient campaign. Third party supporters of Skees have slung huge gobs of mud at Hammerquist in one of the dirtiest campaigns this year, which is saying something. And Skees has hurt himself with mistakes and with not widely shared views on the Civil War. The district’s demographics help Hammerquist. The anti-incumbent mood helps Skees.
Assessment: slight advantage, Hammerquist.
House District 8, Kalispell. Swing district. It’s a 3-way battle between Democrat Bryan Schutt, Independent Bill Jones, and Republican Steve Lavin, in a district that Cheryl Steenson, now teaching in Colombia, won by 14 votes in 2008. Jones, a retired Dentist and former Republican legislator from Bigfork, has worked all the doors while Schutt and Lavin have pretty much stuck to their partisan walking lists. Lavin, an instantly likable fellow, often campaigns with his 10-year-old daughter. There’s been some third party mischief, but the anti-incumbent mood amongst the voters favors Lavin.
Assessment: advantage, Lavin.
Republicans will win all other contests. There are no Democratic candidates for sheriff, or the skills positions that should be appointed, not elected, such as clerk and recorder. Gallagher is likely to carry the county in the PSC race.