Payday loans. Montana’s payday loan industry is shutting down following the passage of I-164, which I supported. According to Jim Mann’s story in the Daily InterLake, the shutdown puts 800 people out of work…for now. I expect the payday guys to ask the legislature to overturn the initiative — and given the composition of the legislature, I think there’s a very good chance that a repeal bill of some sort will land on the governor’s desk.
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
Recounts. Kendall Van Dyk’s lead over Roy Brown is down to eight votes. My back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that there’s only a four percent chance of the election flipping because of ballot counting machine errors (my calculation assumes an error rate of 1:2,500). Other factors, such as challenged ballots, could of course affect the outcome. But I expect Van Dyk to prevail. Yellowstone County seems to have a pretty savvy elections department.
In Livingston, in HD-62, Republican Dan Skattum holds a 15-vote lead over incumbent Democrat Bob Ebinger. I put the odds of that race flipping at one in 66,000.
I hope, incidentally, that college and high school statistics instructors are using these recount possibilities as real world examples of the applications of the binomial distribution. If curriculums are not flexible to take advantage of this situation, we need to make some adjustments.
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
Left in the West. Missoula’s venerable and highly respected progressive blog is shutting down as Jay Stevens, now a Pennsylvanian, and Matt Singer (right), soon to be an Oregonian, move on. Left in the West filled a unique and valued role in the world of progressive debate in Montana. I won’t be alone in missing it, or alone in extending my thanks and best wishes to Jay and Matt.