Kalispell State Senator Jon Sonju abruptly announced today that he’s not running for the U.S. House of Representatives. He cited the usual, and never to be taken lightly, family considerations, but I wonder whether he’s received word that Rep. “Shutdown” Steve Daines has decided to run for a second term in the House. Sonju’s candidacy was predicated on Daine’s vacating his House seat to run for the Senate.
Although the Republicans want to pick up a Senate seat in Montana, they also want to hold onto Montana’s seat in the House. If Daines lost to John Walsh, the status quo in Montana’s Senate delegation wouldn’t change, but if John Lewis, who appears to be the strongest Democratic candidate for the House since Nancy Keenan, wins the House seat, Republicans take a net loss. Daines, with the advantages of incumbency, is a stronger candidate against Lewis than against Walsh.
If Daines decides for the House, expect Corey Stapleton and members of last year’s “I want to be a Republican governor” gang to trip over each other running for the GOP nomination for Senator.
Take all of this for what it is, speculation that’s longer on analysis than fact, an attempt to read tea leaves as well as teabags.