Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.

 

20 November 2013

PPP poll reports low name recognition, GOP advantage

Public Policy Polling just released the results of a 25-question survey taken 15–17 November. Steve Daines and the Republican candidates for the U.S. House all win hypothetical match-ups with Democrats, mostly by margins of 10 percent or more. In the Democratic Senate primary, Walsh leads Bohlinger 39–31 percent.

PPP surveyed 952 Montana voters, including an oversample of 469 usual Republican primary voters and 381 Democratic primary voters, from November 15th to 17th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.2%, +/-4.5% for the GOP sample, and +/-5.0% for the Democratic portion. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Going through the crosstabs, the cognoscenti will notice fairly poor to dismal name recognition for all but Daines, John Bohlinger, and John Walsh, and surprisingly high unfavorables for Daines.

Little of this is surprising. It’s still early. Candidates have announced, most have submitted paperwork to the Federal Election Commission, all are raising money, none can file for an office until mid-January, and while political junkies like myself and most Flathead Memo readers are following these events closely, virtually no one else is. No poll at this stage has much predictive power.

I do want to call your attention to Question 22, which asked “Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?” The response is heavily skewed to the right, a problem for Democrats.

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