20 December 2013

Whom should Bullock appoint to replace Baucus?

Update. Obama just nominated Baucus as ambassador to China. Max Baucus is still a Senator. He has not yet been nominated to serve as ambassador to China — but neither of those facts has deterred speculation on whom Gov. Bullock should appoint to serve the remainder of Baucus’ term. Most commentators in Montana expect Bullock would appoint John Walsh, or possibly an elder statesman such as Pat Williams. Walsh, wisely, has avoided commenting on the situation.

Outside Montana, inside the Washington, D.C. beltway, someone launched a little balloon bearing the name of Jim Messina, Baucus’ former chief of staff, the manager of President’s Obama’s 2012 campaign, and now a political consultant to the conservative party in Great Britain. I’m pretty sure that Messina is he who launched the balloon, thinking he has nothing to lose and that former Sen. Jim Messina would look damn good on his resume (at Political Animal Ed Kilgore had the same reaction). In fact, just launching the balloon is an effort to establish him as Senatorial material, a step up from campaign staff. Messina’s balloon is little, its hot air is cooling, and before long it will be back on the ground, deflated and disdained.

That seems to leave Walsh, endorsed by Bullock on 15 November, and certainly a legitimate candidate for the appointment even if he were not already running for the office. Walsh’s supporters like the idea so much they cannot imagine another outcome. Walsh may like the idea as well. In fact, I’d say that as long as he continues holding his counsel, he tacitly seeks the appointment. Meanwhile, his silence buys him time to consider the wisdom of being appointed Senator and to privately poll the public on the idea.

At Intelligent Discontent, Don Pogreba makes a strong argument that serving as interim Senator improves Walsh’s odds of being elected to his own six-year term. Pogreba cites statistics on the electoral fortunes of appointed Senators, linking to articles by statistician Nate Silver, political scientists David Parker and Robert Saldin, and the historian of the U.S. Senate. And a post at Montana Cowgirl examines not only the pros and cons of appointing Walsh, but the possible replacements for Walsh as Lt. Governor.

Downsides of incumbency through appointment

But there are downsides to being an appointed Senator, downsides that Walsh should ponder deeply before agreeing to become the Senate’s most junior member:

Every hour spent in Washington, D.C., and traveling 1,900 miles there and back, is an hour Walsh can’t campaign in Montana. Yes, he can dial for dollars from any locale with a cell tower, but he can’t press the flesh of the voters unless he’s in Montana. And if he isn’t in Montana to press the flesh, he’ll have a hard time winning. Just ask John Melcher.

As an unelected Senator, he assumes the liabilities of incumbency, but few if any of the advantages. He can’t campaign with the slogan “Re-elect Walsh.” An unimpressive freshman year that would be of little consequence at the end of a six-year term will loom large, and perhaps unfavorably, in the minds of the voters. He’s unlikely to build an impressive legislative legacy, but he’ll cast no-win votes (gun control, for example) that Republicans can use against him or that will incite the wrath of Democrats.

Democrats who vote in Montana’s primary might think the Democratic Establishment, especially the Democratic Establishment in D.C., is trying to undercut Montana’s primary and the Democrats who vote in it. It’s possible he could win the appointment but lose the primary because Democratic voters thought he wasn’t playing fair and square; that he was steamrolling John Bohlinger and Dirk Adams. And you can bet the ranch that Bohlinger and Adams would rant and roar that the fix was in.

If he becomes an appointed Senator, wins the primary, but loses the election — an outcome that Parker and Saldin think likely — he returns to Montana as unemployed man in his early fifties. If he campaigns as Lt. Gov. Walsh, the position to which he was elected, but loses the election, he remains employed as Montana’s second highest elected official.

If Walsh declines the honor, Bullock should appoint Pat Williams or another elder statesman who will behave well and not make waves that wash away Walsh’s chance to win the election.