14 & 26 February 2014

Flathead Democrats still need legislative candidates

Update, 26 February. Former state senator Bob Keenan of Bigfork filed for SD-5 last week. Keenan was termed-out in 2006. He faces current HD-9 state representative Scott Reichner. An interesting match-up that I consider a toss-up at this point.

Halfway through the 10 January through 10 March filing season, Republicans have filed for every legislative district (map) in Flathead County, but Democrats are without candidates in five districts, including two Kalispell districts — HD-7 and SD-4 — that Democrats have a chance of winning.

Lists of filings are maintained by both Montana’s Secretary of State and Flathead County’s elections department. PDFs of candidate’s C-1 and D-1 forms are available from Montana’s Commissioner of Political Practices. Detailed maps of the districts are available from the redistricting commission, and Flathead County’s GIS department. And below, Flathead Memo’s list of Flathead legislative candidates.

Most of Flathead County is rural/suburban. Districts in those areas are heavily Republican. But districts — Hd-5, HD-3, and HD-7 — in the county’s three major urban areas, Whitefish, Columbia Falls, and Kalispell, can be and have been won by Democrats in the last ten years.

Democrats have filed in HD-3 and HD-5, but no Democrat has filed in HD-7, a swing district Democrats won in 2004 and 2008, and came within 35 votes of winning in 2006. There is, Democratic sources report, a general sense that Frank Garner is unbeatable, that he’s nine feet tall and growing. But I’m also beginning to pick up adumbations of a belief among some Democrats that Garner is a closet liberal who would support a lot of Democratic objectives if elected, so it wouldn’t be a disaster if HD-7’s voters sent him to Helena. Unfortunately, there are Kumbayacrats who find that kind of mushy-minded nonsense appealing, so there’s at least a modest potential for HD-7’s Democratic voters not to have a Democrat house candidate on their ballot in November.

House District 8, a new district, leans Republican in my judgment, but could elect a Democrat under some circumstances. House District 6, redrawn, reduced in area, and its geographic center moved north, is thought by some to be more friendly to Democrats than before. It probably is, but that doesn’t make it a district easily won by Democrats.

Senate District 4, comprising HD-7 and HD-8, probably leans slightly Republican, but a big Democratic win in HD-7 combined with a small Democratic loss in HD-8 could produce a Democratic victory.

Starting sometime after filing closes, I’ll post more detailed discussions of each district. Meanwhile, I’ll update the table below as required.

Flathead County legislative districts