Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.
Gravis Marketing polled 836 registered Montana voters on 24–25 November. Gravis polls for Human Events, a very conservative publication.
In one matchup for governor, U.S. Representative-elect Ryan Zinke led incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock 49 to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. In the other matchup, Montana Attorney General Tim Fox led Bullock 45 ti 41 percent with 14 percent undecided. Those polled were not offered a Libertarian by name, or a generic Libertarian, although a Libertarian will be on the ballot and probably will draw 1–3 percent from the Republican nominee.
Polls this early in the process have little to no predictive power, but may establish a baseline. Democrats, however, should be concerned that Bullock, an incumbent governor, is polling at 41 percent, which is the share of the voted received by Amanda Curtis and John Lewis on 4 November. That indicates to me that Bullock may have been damaged by the John Walsh fiasco, and that his support has contracted to the Yellow Dog Democrat baseline. He has work to do.
Fox v. Bullock makes sense, but Zinke v. Bullock does not. If Zinke wins re-election to the U.S. House in 2016, he’ll be well positioned to make a serious run at Jon Tester in the 2018 midterm. Tester was elected to the Senate with just pluralities in 2006 and 2012. If Republicans succeed in inflicting a top two primary on Montana, there won’t be a Libertarian or any third candidate on the ballot to draw votes from the Republican.
Gravis found that President Obama’s popularity in Montana is at just 32 percent. Obama, of course, won’t be on the 2016 ballot, but Hillary Clinton might be. Therefore Gravis matched her with a number of Republicans, among them Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and — get this — Nikki Haley, the DeMinted Republican governor of South Carolina. It’s not easy to take seriously a Presidential poll that takes Nikki Haley seriously.