Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.

 

3 December 2014

Trashing the Gravis poll will not improve Bullock’s numbers

When campaigns begin taking pot shots at the messengers — at the pollsters — it’s a sure bet that the campaign’s in trouble and the political staffers are rattled. Today, Montana Cowgirl argues that “Gravis marketing is like a broken clock that shows the correct time twice a day.” The reason for this post? Last week’s Gravis poll showing Steve Bullock not only trailing Ryan Zinke and Tim Fox, but polling at Yellow Dog Democrat numbers.

Gravis was not far off the mark for the 2014 general election:

gravis_v_voters_table

There weren’t many polls for Montana for the 2014 campaign, but for the federal races, the polls, including Gravis, did not wildly diverge from the outcome of the election. See Flathead Memo’s 29 October 2014 post on the polls for the U.S. Senate and House races.

Last summer and fall, whenever I reported what Gravis found, I received emails from campaign and party operatives trying to discredit Gravis and to persuade me not to report the results. I added caveats to my reports, but I did not suppress the polls. Nor will I for the 2016 campaign cycle.

Democrats should stop shooting at the messenger and instead shoot, figuratively, for a message that resonates with the voters.