Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.
A month ago, Rep. Mark Blasdel won the Republican primary for Senate District 4 (Kalispell), defeating former Kalispell mayor Tammi Fisher by a two-to-one margin despite a Democratic crossover vote for Fisher, by far the least conservative of the two. Yet in House District 7 (old downtown Kalispell), Frank Garner handily defeated the much more conservative Ronalee Skees, not needing the Democratic crossover votes he received.
What happened?
In HD-7, political tyro Frank Garner capitalized on the name recognition he earned as a well liked and respected Kalispell police chief. He announced early, soon after the 2013 legislative session ended, raised twice as much money as Skees, and campaigned hard at the doors. Skees, as personable as her husband, former HD-4 representative Derek (they’re a very likable couple), likewise a political tyro, worked hard door-to-door, too, but was overmatched. It’s that simple.
In SD-4, Blasdel was by far the more experienced candidate. Eight years ago, running from the right, he took out Bernie Olson in the Republican primary. After that, he was never seriously challenged. His formidable political skills, coupled with his impressive ambition, brought him to the Speakership of the Montana House in his last term. His campaign for SD-4 was his fifth.
Fisher was running her second campaign, and her first for the legislature. She lacked Blasdel’s campaign experience and savvy, raising just one-third as much money, and made some mistakes (the most serious was accusing Blasdel of carpetbagging). Moreover, compared to Blasdel, a son of the Flathead who had the support of other SOTFs like Jon Sonju, she was an outsider.
Blasdel had — has — powerful statewide support from conservative high rollers. He’ll win in November, positioning himself for runs for governor in 2016 and 2020 without risking his seat in the Montana Senate.
Fisher has few immediate options around Kalispell. Neither Steve Lavin in HD-8 nor Randy Brodehl in HD-9 becomes term limited until 2018. She could challenge them, of course, but I wouldn’t bet so much as a sawbuck on her winning. I suppose she could consider defecting to the Democratic Party, but I don’t think she’d be comfortable doing that. And I don’t know how welcome she’d be in the Democratic Party. Exploratory efforts in both directions might be worthwhile. But that’s long term. For now, she’ll keep her Republican options open by endorsing Blasdel and supporting GOP candidates.
Is Ronalee Skees through with seeking elective office? I doubt it. She may have another go at Garner in two years, but I suspect she’s more likely to run for the school board or another local office. And I predict she’ll close ranks and support Garner.