Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.

 

21 July 2014

Walsh gains on Daines in latest PPP poll

If a new poll from Public Policy Polling is correct, the gap between Steve Daines and John Walsh has closed from 18 to 7 percentage points in the last month. Daines has lost 7 points and Walsh has gained 4 points. Libertarian Mike Fellows was not included in the poll.

Below, a graph of the last five public polls on this contest. Although the latest PPP poll is the first with (barely) overlapping error bars, curb your enthusiasm if you're a Democrat. The probability that Daines is leading is 95 percent. A second caveat: we don't know yet whether this poll is an outlier. A third: Walsh is still below 40 percent.

Still, the election appears to be narrowing. That will help Walsh raise more money, and should improve the morale of his campaign and Democrats.