Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.
Voting in the general election begins in 110 days — and that’s how long Sen. John Walsh has to make up a 15-point deficit. At this stage of the campaign, polls have less predictive power than at later stages, especially after Labor Day. But that doesn't mean the polls below can be dismissed. In November, 2013, Walsh trailed Daines 52–35 percent among registered voters, a 17 percent gap. In the weighted average of the last three polls, all of likely voters, Daines leads 51.4 to 36.2 percent. In the only poll conducted after the 3 June primary, he led by 18 percent.
For Walsh, closing that gap won’t be easy. It probably will require a rapid and extensive overhaul of his campaign; because what he’s doing and saying now isn’t getting the job done. The needle has barely budged in the last eight months. This will discourage potential donors, and demoralize Democrats. Unless he begins gaining on Daines, and unless Daines begins polling below 50 percent, he’ll enter a political death spiral near, I would think, the end of August.
