Jon Tester rode a throw the bums out wave to a plurality victory in the 2006 midterm election. The voting eligible turnout was 57.1 percent. He was re-elected in the Presidential election of 2012, again with a plurality. The voting eligible turnout was 62.9 percent. Can he win a third term in the midterm election of 2018? At this point, that seems doubtful.
Tester had three advantages in 2006: (1) a weak opponent in the aging and visibly slowing 71-year-old incumbent, Conrad Burns; (2) Stan Jones, the Libertarian safety valve for disgruntled Republicans, who drew thousands of votes from Burns; and (3) the highest VEP turnout in a Montana midterm election since 1994.
Six years later, he had another weak opponent, Rep. Denny Rehberg, whose campaign was poorly run; another Libertarian safety valve, Dan Cox, who drew 6.6 percent of the vote; and a VEP turnout exceeding 60 percent.
Tester most likely will have none of those advantages in 2018:
Tester’s not yet toast, but he’s in trouble. If he wants to avoid going back to being just farmer Jon, he must find a way to engage, energize, and get to the polls the disillusioned, disaffected, and feckless Democrats who blew off the ballot box in 2010 and 2014. There may not be a way to do that if he tailors his message to so-called independent voters who are thought to favor Republican policies.