Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.

 

13 November 2014

Tester unlikely to win in 2018 with 2010 or 2014 turnout

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Jon Tester rode a throw the bums out wave to a plurality victory in the 2006 midterm election. The voting eligible turnout was 57.1 percent. He was re-elected in the Presidential election of 2012, again with a plurality. The voting eligible turnout was 62.9 percent. Can he win a third term in the midterm election of 2018? At this point, that seems doubtful.

Tester had three advantages in 2006: (1) a weak opponent in the aging and visibly slowing 71-year-old incumbent, Conrad Burns; (2) Stan Jones, the Libertarian safety valve for disgruntled Republicans, who drew thousands of votes from Burns; and (3) the highest VEP turnout in a Montana midterm election since 1994.

Six years later, he had another weak opponent, Rep. Denny Rehberg, whose campaign was poorly run; another Libertarian safety valve, Dan Cox, who drew 6.6 percent of the vote; and a VEP turnout exceeding 60 percent.

Tester most likely will have none of those advantages in 2018:

  1. Assuming he’s re-elected in 2016, Ryan Zinke, a much stronger candidate than Democrats like to admit, would be Tester’s most probable opponent. And with four statewide campaigns behind him, Zinke would have more statewide campaigning experience than Tester.

  2. There may not be a Libertarian on the general election ballot in 2018. Republicans in the 2015 legislature will approve another top two primary referendum — and this time they won’t make drafting mistakes that get it kicked off the ballot. If it passes, Tester would have to win a majority of the votes, something he’s not yet been able to do.

  3. Without a Libertarian on the 2018 general ballot to absorb Republican votes, Tester probably needs a VEP turnout of at least 60 percent. Given how many Democrats refused to vote in 2010 and 2014, I think a VEP turnout of 60 percent in 2018 is highly improbable.

Tester’s not yet toast, but he’s in trouble. If he wants to avoid going back to being just farmer Jon, he must find a way to engage, energize, and get to the polls the disillusioned, disaffected, and feckless Democrats who blew off the ballot box in 2010 and 2014. There may not be a way to do that if he tailors his message to so-called independent voters who are thought to favor Republican policies.