Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.
Montana’s Public Service Commission District 5 (map 1) sprawls across the continental divide, encompassing Flathead and Lake Counties in the west, and Glacier, Pondera, Teton, and Lewis and Clark Counties in the east. Twenty-point-five percent of Montana’s 665,700 registered voters live in PSC-5, and 44.8 percent of PSC-5’s registered voters live in Flathead County (map 2), the most heavily Republican large county in the state. Incumbent Republican PSC Commissioner Bill Gallagher is retiring, so the seat is open in 2014.
The candidates for PSC-5 are Republican Brad Johnson, a former Montana Secretary of State, and Democrat Galen Hollenbaugh, a termed-out state representative, both Helena residents. Given the district’s voting history, Johnson must be considered the favorite.
Democrat Ken Toole won PSC-5 in the Democratic wave election of 2006, beating Republican Mike Taylor, a weak candidate, by 181 votes in a recount. Four years later, in the Democratic debacle of 2010, Toole lost to Gallagher by 11,812 votes. In both elections, Toole carried only Glacier and Lewis and Clark Counties.
Hollenbaugh’s primary totals in 2014 were startlingly similar to Toole’s primary totals in 2010, and well below Toole’s primary totals in 2006. It’s almost as though exactly the same Democrats who voted in the 2010 primary voted in the 2014 primary.
Voter turnout falls in midterm elections, but Democratic turnout falls much more than Republican turnout. The falloff is especially steep in the 18–29 cohort, and among single mothers and young single women. Making matters worse for Hollenbaugh, a voter cohort with little midterm falloff, senior citizens, once a solid Democratic constituency, have favored Republicans since 2008, and in particular since 2010.
Although Hollenbaugh is at least as strong a candidate as Toole, Johnson is a much stronger candidate than Taylor. Hollenbaugh and Johnson differ little in the strength of their credentials, but they differ considerably in their positions on the issues. More on that tomorrow.
