A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

7 April 2015

Could medicaid expansion become a referendum on the 2016 ballot?

That’s a possibility — and the bill being put on the ballot may have the text of HB-249, Gov. Bullock’s bill, or a modified version thereof, not the text of SB-405, Sen. Buttrey’s right wing bill that desperate for any bill Democrats endorsed.

But it’s not a probability.

The House Human Services committee voted 10–7 to give the a do not pass recommendation. Overturning that recommendation evidently requires a 60-vote supermajority (expressed another way, it gives a legislative veto to a 40-member minority), which Democrats and the so-called moderate Republicans likely cannot muster.

During the executive action session, the MT House’s human services committee approved amending SB-405 by substitution of HB-429, a more generous bill that the House killed in March. Another amendment converted SB-405/HB-429, to a referendum.

I’m waiting for a copy of the bill as amended before offering detailed comments because I doubt it’s identical to HB-249.

On the Twitter feeds, progressives are expressing considerable anger at committee chair Art Wittich (R-Bozeman).

Meanwhile, a fierce debate over whether Republicans are welshing on the Silver Bullet deal is developing.

Some observations:

  1. Progressives who want to expand Medicaid in Montana really have only two options: win a majority in each chamber of the MT Legislature, or pass a citizens initiative. And only the first option, winning a legislative majority while keeping a Democrat as governor, ensures that Medicaid will be expanded. A Republican governor and legislature would repeal a citizens initiative without taking a deep breath.

  2. Trying to cut a deal with the self-described Responsible Republicans, who are actually deeply conservative and only appear moderate when compared to the teabaggers in their caucus, probably isn’t going to work, let alone result in a deal that protects the poorest of the poor while expanding Medicaid to those in the 100–138 percent of the poverty level gap. Touted as a compromise, SB-405 is described better as a compromised bill, a capitulation to right wing Republican theology, yet it’s still too much for the teabaggers, who will oppose expanding Medicaid no matter how it’s done.