A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

7 August 2015

Will Tester have the wisdom to support the nuclear deal with Iran?

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There was a great betrayal of America and commonsense yesterday. Sen. Charles Schumer, aligning himself with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, announced he will vote to disapprove the nuclear arms agreement with Iran negotiated by the United States, Russia, Germany, China, the United Kingdom, and France. Schumer is up for re-election next year.

Montana’s Republican members of Congress, Sen. Steve Daines and Rep. Ryan Zinke, both on record as opposing the agreement, undoubtedly danced a jig of joy upon learning of Schumer’s decision. So, too, I suspect, did retired Army two-star Paul Valley of Bigfork, whom Zinke recently introduced to fellow members of Congress.

But how did Montana’s lone Democrat in Congress, Sen. Jon Tester, react to Schumer’s decision? I found no news of that, but I did learn that Tester placed the text of the agreement online, and that on 4 August met with various ambassadors to inform himself on the agreement. Here are the opening paragraphs of his press release:

Senator Jon Tester today met with Israeli Ambassador to the United States, Ron Dermer, to ask tough questions regarding the specifics of the Iran nuclear agreement.

“In order to make an informed decision, it’s critical that folks in Congress gather as much input as possible,” Tester said after the meetings. “Today I got the chance to ask specific questions and hear concerns from the ambassadors. Their analysis of the agreement and the feedback from folks in Montana will help me cast a well-informed vote to prevent a nuclear Iran.”

Tester also met with former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Daniel Kurtzer and former U.S. Ambassador William Luers and asked them how the agreement could affect Israel and the impact the agreement would have on our allies should sanctions on Iran be lifted.

That reeks of politics, and in particular of the politics of appeasing the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the aggressive and conservative pro-Israel group that opposes the agreement with Iran. As chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Tester wants AIPAC and its members to support and donate to Democratic candidates. Thus he may be stringing out his decision to the last minute to see whether his vote is needed to sustain President Obama’s veto of Congress’ expected vote of disapproval. If his vote isn’t needed, Tester may vote against the agreement. According to James Fallows of The Atlantic, that’s the cynical reasoning behind Schumer’s opposition to the agreement:

Schumer doesn’t put it this way, but … his life will be easier in many ways—in minimizing hassle during his upcoming reelection run in New York, and thus maximizing his efforts to help other Democratic candidates so that he has a chance of becoming Senate majority rather than minority leader—if he doesn’t have to spend time explaining away a vote for the deal to his conservative and AIPAC-aligned constituents. If the deal goes through despite Schumer’s opposition, people who support the deal won’t care, and those who oppose it can blame evil Barack rather than valiant Chuck.

As he makes his way through this briar patch, Tester should remain mindful that not only is the agreement good on its merits, it enjoys the support of a majority of Americans. Again, Fallows:

Most of the American public, by a 54-38 margin, according to a new poll by the Democratic-affiliated Public Policy Polling. “Voters within every gender, race, and age group are in support of it, reflecting the broad-based mandate for the deal,” the PPP analysis said.

Most Jewish Americans, by a larger margin than the public in general, according to a Los Angeles Jewish Journal poll reported in the The Jerusalem Post. In this poll, American Jews supported the deal by a 49-31 margin; among the rest of the public in this study, the support was only 28-24, with a very large group undecided. According to the poll, 53 percent of Jewish Americans wanted Congress to approve the deal, versus 35 percent who wanted Congress to stop it.

That’s just a fraction of Fallows’ list of supporters. I’d like quote the entire list, but I’d risk running afoul of copyright law if I did.

Tester also should remain mindful that unless the U.S. unleashes an all out nuclear war against Iran, there is only one nation that can prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons: Iran itself. It has the knowhow, the requisite raw materials, and the industrial capacity to produce both uranium and plutonium bombs. It’s a proud nation that never will publicly renounce its right to build atomic bombs, but it’s also a rational nation that just concluded that building a bomb is not in its enlightened self-interest. The agreement negotiated by Secretary of State John Kerry that makes less likely Iran’s building a nuclear weapon is a remarkable accomplishment for which no real-world alternative exists. It would be a terrible mistake for Democrats to sacrifice this significant step for peace on the altar of appeasing AIPAC.