Montana Poll: Bernie runs better against GOP than does Hillary
The Montana Poll (PDF) for 2015 is out. It was conducted 16–23 November 2015 by faculty and students at Montana State University’s Billings campus. The sample size was 435, yielding a 4.8 percent margin of error.
There are some some interesting results:
- Bernie Sanders is a stronger Presidential candidate than Hillary Clinton, but both lose to Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz (table of results, below).
- Fifty percent of Montanans approve of how Gov. Steve Bullock is doing his job; 19.6 percent disapprove, and 30.4 percent had no opinion. Lt. Gov. Angela announced her resignation on 30 November.
- Sen. Jon Tester: 46.6 percent approve, 39.4 percent disapprove, 13.9 percent have no opinion.
- Sen. Steve Daines: 48.2 percent approve, 22.5 disapprove, 29.2 percent have no opinion.
- Rep. Ryan Zinke: 44.7 percent approve, 21.3 percent disapprove, 34 percent have no opinion.
- Affordable Care Act’s impact on Montana: 59.5 percent say negative, 23.4 percent say positive, 8.1 percent say the impact is neutral. Women were more likely to say the impact is negative.
- Most important problem: 24.3 percent say terrorism, followed by the economy at 9.3 percent. The poll was conducted just days after the 13 November terrorist attacks in Paris. Older voters and women were more likely to report terrorism is their top issue.
A few observations:
- Bullock will, I think, lose some popularity due to the Angela McLean situation, but his 2.6:1 approve-disapprove ratio augers well for his re-election prospects; provided his third lieutenant governor passes muster.
- That Sanders is a stronger candidate than Hillary is little surprise. Spooked by recent terrorist attack, many voters are seeking a strong father figure who will protect them. Here, gender works to Hillary's disadvantage. Sanders, while a liberal, comes across as one tough old guy.
- Ben Carson's popularity is astonishing and worrisome, as it that of Donald Trump, a man increasingly difficult to distinguish from a sociopathic fascist.
- The Affordable Care Act's unpopularity represents the triumph of propaganda over fact. The way the question was worded might also have invited a negative response that would not have occurred had the poll asked how satisfied people were with their health insurance.
- The poll's sample size is relatively small, and the methodology may not be as sophisticated as that employed by Pew and other national pollsters. Assume wide error bars.
