A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.
Today, updates on maps, Glacier’s unpleasant options, Grizzly Point, Lakota’s video, and how the fire started.
Online maps of the fire’s perimeter now are available from several sources. In today’s story on the fire, the Flathead Beacon included a link to the incident management team’s (what a wonderfully bureaucratic name) map, which displays the perimeter and closures against satellite imagery. Here’s a small version:
The fire’s in red, closures in blue, the Sun Road in yellow.
The IMT added another map to its webpage today.
At geomac.gov, the online viewer permits the perimeter as defined by MODIS thermal imaging to be displayed against satellite imagery, a USGS topographic map (metric elevations), or a street map. And if you download the dynamic KMZ file, you can display the perimeter in Google Earth; this works well:
Fire perimeter displayed in Google Earth.
Few good options for Glacier’s managers. The problem isn’t the fire’s size. At approximately 3,200 acres it’s not that big. What makes the fire so dangerous is the location. Seven miles long, half to a mile and a half wide, the burned and burning area stretches from a mile west of Saint Mary Lake to less than four miles from the park’s eastern boundary and the town of St. Mary. It’s still July, and yesterday’s rains notwithstanding, still bone dry with 90-degree temperatures forecast for later this week. If high winds send the flames into the forest’s canopy, firebrands will jump the fire line, igniting spot fires that easily could flash into a crown fire roaring toward St. Mary and the Blackfeet reservation.
Last night, the Flathead Beacon’s Justin Franz Tweeted:
That’s why the fire crews are blasting fire lines and using motorized equipment. Bulldozers may be next. If the fire escapes the park, there will be all kinds of hell to pay. There will be hell to pay if the fire stays in the park if firefighting tactics make a mess of the park. There will be hell to pay if the Going to the Sun Road isn’t fully open by early August. And there will be hell to pay if the Sun Road reopens too soon and something bad happens. The park’s managers are between a rock and a glowing ember, no doubt receiving considerable political pressure to extinguish the fire and reopen everything pronto.
That may take some time. Although the visitor center at St. Mary reopened yesterday, Logan Pass remains closed because the sewage pumper trucks that service the restrooms at the pass must use the eastern section of the Sun Road (the trucks can’t negotiate the tight turns on the western grade). Logan Pass may reopen tomorrow, but as long as the Sun Road remains closed east of the pass, a lot of the heart of the park remains closed.
It’s still July in what may be the hottest, driest summer on record. Hot spots that could burst into flame likely will remain until quenched by days long downpours in late fall. Given the geography of the fire, the not insignificant probability of another breakout, and the conflicting objectives of public safety and public access, the park’s managers must select from a largely unappetizing menu of options.Grizzly Point. The park’s press releases on the fire concluded with this paragraph:
The fire was first reported at approximately 3:45 p.m. on Tuesday and was located near Grizzly Point, approximately six miles east of Logan Pass. Park dispatch received numerous reports of the fire from shuttle bus drivers, Glacier Boat Company employees, park employees and visitors.
The fire’s approximate origin, Grizzly Point, is presented as a proper noun, implying that it’s a recognized place name in the park. Yet it does not appear on the park’s online shaded relief map; not on any of the U.S. Geological Survey’s topographic maps covering the park; not on Google Earth; not in Jack Holterman’s Place Names of Glacier National Park; not in my edition of Gordon Edward’s A Climber’s Guide to Glacier National Park; not in the database of the U.S. Board on Geographic Names.
A friend who frequently visits the park believes that Grizzly Point is a NPS name for the Jackson Glacier Overlook (48.678° N, 113,653° W, NAD83), but I’m not convinced. The overlook is only 3.25 great circle miles east of Logan Pass (the actual bearing is 113.4° true), just half the distance to Grizzly Point reported in the news release.
Clearly, Grizzly Point, which apparently lies near the western end of Saint Mary Lake, is known to the park’s staff, probably to the staff of concessionaires, and may be known to journalists covering the park. But to be useful to other people, for example a resident of Ohio who plans to visit the park after Labor Day, the name Grizzly Point needs to be associated with specific geographic coordinates, preferably latitude and longitude. Coordinates can be entered into Google Earth and Geographic Positioning System applications such as MacGPS Pro.
After I upload this post, I’m sending the park an email request for the coordinates and recommending that (a) Grizzly Point be submitted to the Board on Geographic Names for formal approval, and (b) in news releases and other documents the park supply for locations not in the Board of Geographic Names’ database either coordinates or a topographic map with the place(s) marked.
The mystery of Grizzly Point’s latitude and longitude is not attempted deception by the park, as suggested by at least one commenter on a news story last week. The park is trying to inform, not obfuscate. It’s simply an example of what can happen when someone believes information is known more widely than it actually is.
Lakota’s video. As the fire exploded on 21 July, a young man from Missouri, Lakota Duncan, riding in his parent’s automobile, used his iPhone to record dramatic video of the towering and advancing flames. The video went viral after being published on KAJ television’s Facebook page (there was a story in the InterLake, too).
Unfortunately, some online commenters have accused Lakota and his family of being unrepentant publicity seekers, not to mention thrill seekers who should not have paused to capture the video. This is unfair. They’re neither publicity hounds nor thrill seekers. The video, for which they should have been compensated and probably were not, provides a visceral understanding of the fire that cannot be obtained from a written story or talking head.
Whitefish resident Scott Wurster was also on the Sun Road near the fire that day. He published his account of his dash to safety, and of his discussion with Lakota and Lakota’s family, in a national parks internet chatroom. For people who want to know the rest of Lakota’s story as well as Scott’s, it’s pretty much mandatory reading.
How the fire started. Given the fire appears to have originated in the vicinity of a backcountry campsite near the west end of Saint Mary Lake, there’s speculation on the internet that the source of ignition was a campfire not fully extinguished or a cigarette not fully put out. That speculation is not off the wall, but it’s speculation just the same. Other possibilities include an exploding camp stove, arson, or a dormant hot spot from a lightning strike. But there’s not enough publicly available information for anyone to draw a conclusion, so fair minded people should resist doing so. That’s not easy to do. Our brains are wired to interpolate and extrapolate when data points are missing; we seek closure by making assumptions. Trained investigators, and that includes journalists, learn to keep open minds, to follow the facts, to withhold judgment — and in certain factual situations, to admit no conclusion can be reached.