15 March 2015

South Africa: bomb grade uranium mixed with hatred of the west

Loosely secured in a vault at South Africa’s Pemlindaba nuclear research center sit 220 kilograms of uranium enriched to at least 90 percent uranium 235. That’s bomb grade uranium, enough to make several crude but deadly bombs. South Africa has absolutely no need for bomb grade uranium, but refuses to sell it to the United States because its leaders despise the U.S. They’re hanging on to their bomb grade uranium, and deliberately not guarding it as tightly as they should, because they know we find that behavior disconcerting. The Washington Post has the story.

South Africa’s situation differs from Iran’s in that South Africa has bomb grade uranium, but is similar in that both nations, out of national pride and animus toward the west, insist on being recognized as having exactly the same right as the United States to manufacture and possess bomb grade uranium. That’s why any agreement with Iran will not include Iran’s renunciation of a right to own and operate technology that produces fissile material. They believe that surrendering that right makes them a second class nation.

There’s not much we can do to change that. Sanctions and incentives have some effect, although with South Africa they seem to have no effect. One effect with prideful nations is getting up the backs of its leaders, who pledge they’ll never give in to the Great Satan.

At some point, Iran and South must conclude that having a bomb, or the appearance of having a bomb, is more trouble than it’s worth, that the expense of the program doesn’t yield a commensurate improvement in security. We may never get an agreement or even acknowledgment when that happens. In the meantime, we improve the odds that will happen by conducting calm diplomacy and not starting a war.

Of the two situation, I think South Africa’s is the more dangerous because it has bomb grade uranium, and a government that hates the west to the point of irrationality.