A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.
Will Sen. Jon Tester run for re-election in 2018? And if he doesn’t, whom would Democrats choose to replace him? Those questions are quietly being discussed in some Democratic circles these days. And some unsettling ideas are receiving more consideration than they deserve.
If Tester runs in 2018, he faces a very difficult election. He won both of his terms by a plurality when Libertarian candidates peeled off enough of the conservative vote to deny victory to Republicans Conrad Burns in 2006 and Dennis Rehberg in 2012. Although a midterm, the 2006 was a wave election with abnormally high turnout. The last two midterms, 2010 and 2014, were low turnout elections that badly hurt Democrats.
Could 2018 be a midterm with abnormally high turnout? That can’t be ruled out, but at this point there’s no reason to believe that would happen. A repeat of 2010 and 2014 is much more likely.
Making this more interesting are reports that private polls show Tester losing badly to Rep. Ryan Zinke, and reports of varying reliability that Tester has decided not to seek re-election. There’s no reason for him to make that decision before the 2016 general election, and I doubt he would do so.
But if Tester does decide not to run, the Democrats best positioned to replace him, provided they win their elections in 2016, are Gov. Steve Bullock and Montana Auditor candidate Jesse Laslovich. At the moment, Bullock is on track to challenge Sen. Steve Daines in 2020, and Laslovich is on track to run for the open governor’s seat that year. Bullock has a better shot against Daines than against Zinke, but there would be tremendous pressure on him to run for the senate in 2018 to prevent Montana’s sending another Republican to Congress.
Some Democrats hate Zinke so much that they think he’d be a pushover for Bullock or even Laslovich. That’s not the case. Zinke’s political skills are formidable. He would have a good chance of winning a senate seat in 2018. I think he would beat both Bullock and Laslovich.
Suppose, however, that Tester retires and Bullock wins the election to replace him. Montana would have a new governor, Angela McLean, Montana’s current Lt. Governor, if Bullock keeps her on the ticket for 2016. I expect he will keep her on the ticket — his campaign website is Bullock-McLean — but I’m beginning to hear talk that there may be a move afoot to replace her on the ticket. Whether the rumored dump Angela movement originates in Bullock’s camp, or in the camp of someone who sees a possible shortcut to becoming governor is anyone’s guess. What I do know is that something is making some people around McLean uneasy.
In some ways, these rumors remind me of the speculation during President Obama’s first term, speculation generated by diehard supporters of Hillary Clinton, that Joe Biden should be replaced with Hillary for Obama’s second term. There’s always a whiff of that kind of mischief wafting in the capitol’s corridors and restrooms.
One possibility is that recent changes in Bullock’s office have created uncertainty and ambiguous information that are wrongly being interpreted as the beginning of a send Angela back to Anaconda campaign. I hope that’s the case.
What I do know is that dumping McLean would be a huge mistake. If Bullock replaced her he would enrage feminists by kicking a woman off the ballot, and renew doubts about his ability to judge people. Remember John the Plagiarizer Walsh? That would be stupidity squared, and Bullock is not a stupid man.
My impression of McLean is that she’s highly intelligent and not to be underestimated. She speaks well in public, and seems able to connect with people on a one-on-one basis. If she had to sit in the governor’s chair, she would convince voters that she belonged there. There’s certainly no case for dumping her because she might move up to governor because Bullock might move up to the senate.
McLean, incidentally, will be speaking at the Flathead Democrat’' Fall dinner on 7 November. Tickets should still be available at the Democrat’s website.