4 April 2016

Even if Dems win Congress in 2016, they probably can’t hold it in 2018

Impressed by the Republican Party’s apparent dysfunction, and the presumed unpopularity of its 2016 presidential nominee, some Democrats and political analysts are beginning to entertain the possibility that the Democrats can recapture control of the U.S. House of Representatives as well as the U.S. Senate.

Don’t bet on it. And don’t bet on Democrats recapturing control of the Montana Legislature, either.

Even if Democrats do win the U.S. House and Senate this fall, they probably will lose control in 2018.

There are three problems. First, Republican legislatures gerrymandered districts to their advantage. Second, Democrats are increasingly clustered in urban areas, where they win by large majorities. Third, and by far the biggest problem, millions and millions and millions of Democrats who vote in presidential elections do not vote in midterm elections. The charts below tell the story.