11 April 2016

It’s a two party system in the MT House of Representatives

A Democrat or Republican almost always wins. Montana held 600 state house of representatives district elections during 2004–2014 (download spreadsheet). Third party (Libertarian, Green, and Constitution) and independent candidates were on the ballot in 67 of those elections — but only one candidate who was not a Republican or Democrat has won a legislative seat.

The exception was the Constitution Party’s Rick Jore’s, who won House District 12 (Polson) in 2006 by defeating incumbent Democrat Jeanne Windham. No Republican was on the HD-12 ballot that year. Jore caucused with the Republicans.

Two years earlier, also running under the Constitution Party’s banner, Jore received 1,559 votes. So did Windham. Republican Jack Cross, the district’s third candidate in 2004, received 1,107 votes. Under Montana’s rules for resolving ties, Windham was declared the winner.

Third party and independent candidates don’t receive many votes. Their share of statewide MT house votes usually ranges from one to two percent, although it can reach ten percent and higher in the districts where the third party and independent candidates are on the ballot.

Most MT house elections are won by majorities. Eleven house district elections were won by a plurality instead of a majority thanks to the ballot presence of an independent or third party candidate. Republicans won seven of these elections, Democrats the other four.

In the seven district they won by pluralities, Republicans probably would have won majorities had not conservative third parties and independents been on the ballot.

The four Democratic plurality wins occurred because conservative third parties split the Republican vote. Zac Perry’s 48-vote win over incumbent Republican Jerry O’Neil in HD-3 (Columbia Falls) in 2014, an election in which the Libertarian candidate received 138 votes, is the most recent example.

Although a Libertarian filed in HD-3, he did not submit C-1 and D-1 forms to Montana’s commissioner of political practices and therefore was removed from the ballot. This works against Perry’s prospects for re-election. Working for Perry are his incumbency, his experience in campaigning (his Republican opponent is not a political virgin, but is a tyro campaigner), and the expectation of better Democratic higher in a Presidential election year. Although he won with a plurality, Perry’s win over a Republican incumbent in a low turnout midterm election was no mean feat.