21 April 2016

Flathead campaign notes — the GOP primary in SD-3

There are three primary election contests of note in the Flathead, all Republican. Two are for the legislature, the other is for county commissioner. The campaigns are beginning to engage voters, as absentee ballots for the 7 June primary will be mailed out in early May.

Today, a look at the contest in Senate District 3 (map, snapshot PDF).

An open seat currently held by term limited Sen. Bruce Tutvedt, considered a responsible Republican by his friends and a Republican in name only (RINO) by the tea party wing of the GOP, SD-3 comprises House District 5, a Democratic leaning swing district, and also an open seat, and House District 6, a deep red district currently represented by Republican Rep. Carl Glimm, who is running for re-election.

In 2014, HD-5 was won by Democrat Ed Lieser. HD-6, by Glimm — and by a wider margin than Lieser’s in HD-5. At this point, I rate SD-5 as likely Republican.

The Republicans vying to replace Tutvedt are Montana house majority leader Rep. Keith Regier, term limited in House District 4, where his son, Matt, is running to replace him and start a dynasty, and automobile dealer and rookie candidate Don “Don K” Kaltschmidt.

Both men are conservative, but Regier is far more conservative and rigidly ideological. Whitefish ultra-conservative Joe Coco is holding an event today for Regier and HD-5 candidate Chet Billi at Coco’s office in Whitefish.

Kaltschmidt is running television ads (not yet on his YouTube page) and, as this photograph proves, kissing babies. A rookie candidate, but with at least some of the instincts of a seasoned pro.

Television can be effective, but it can be expensive compared to other means of communicating with voters. The campaign finance reports for the primary will be interesting. I would not be surprised if the winning Republican in SD-3 spends $20,000 or more.

Melissa Hartman is unopposed for the Democratic nomination for SD-3. Therefore, if the Sanders v. Clinton contest appears settled by the time Flathead residents mark their ballots, there’s a potential for a crossover vote against Regier. The potential is increased by the possibility that Democrats might also want to influence the Republican county commissioner contest between incumbent Pam Holmquist and challenger Tim Harmon.