11 August 2016
Voter registration is down from 2012 — can Bullock still win?
Suppose Montana’s gubernatorial election were held today. If in each county the same fraction of registered voters that cast votes for Steve Bullock in 2012 voted for him today, and Greg Gianforte received Rick Hill’s 2012 fraction, who would win?
Bullock would prevail. But his margin of victory would be approximately 4,800 votes, down from his margin of 7,571 votes four years ago. (My quick-and-dirty county by county analysis is available as a spreadsheet that you can download.)
Statewide, the number of registered voters in early August is down 23,999 voters from November, 2012. Especially important, compared to 2012, there are marked differences between counties. Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Missoula, and Silver Bow — all Democratic strongholds — are down by thousands, while Republican stronghold Flathead County is up by 2,751.
The statewide total could increase between now and election day. In the last three presidential elections, the number of registered voters increased an average of 6.4 percent from the primary to the general election; in 2004, the increase was 7.2 percent; in 2008, 5.9 percent; in 2012, 6.1 percent. Applying a 6.4 percent increase to the 2016 primary’s 645,295 registered voters predicts approximately 686,600 registered voters for the general election in November, approximately 5,000 more registered voters than the 681,608 for the 2012 general election.
At 798,787, Montana’s 2016 voting eligible population is up from 773,147 in 2012. All else remaining equal, Montana’s current voter registration roll should number approximately 20,000 more than in 2012. But for whatever reason, not all else remains equal. As the column chart below displays, Montana is registering a smaller percentage of its VEP than in previous years.
The column graph below displays how VEP turnout differs from registered voter turnout for post-26th Amendment general elections in Montana.
As of early August, there may be as many as 140,000 Montanans who are eligible to vote, but are not registered to vote. A few may be very old and/or very ill, and perhaps not fit to vote in any practical sense. But the rest comprise the pool of new voters that smart campaigns will try to register.
Steve Bullock has the advantage of incumbency, the advantage of not being a tyro at running statewide campaigns, and the advantage of running against a tyro who’s making “just shot myself in my foot” mistakes. But those advantages could be offset by the decline in registered voters in heavily Democratic counties.