21 August 2016
If this were just a 2-party election, Hillary might be losing
As Hillary Clinton’s lead in some public opinion polls increases, her campaign has become so confident of victory that she’s begun mapping her agenda as President. But she might want to stop measuring the drapes and concentrate on campaigning. In polls that include Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Clinton still leads, but only by a plurality. And when the sum of liberal candidates (Clinton and Stein) is compared to the sum of conservative candidates (Trump and Johnson), the contest is dead even with one of every 12 voters undecided or not expressing an opinion.
It’s possibly that Clinton could win the election with a landslide in the Electoral College, yet win only a plurality of the popular vote. She could even win the electoral and popular votes, but lose the liberal vs. conservative vote. That could happen — and if it does, it won’t be a mandate. It will be a prescription for a difficult, mostly gridlocked, four years, and possibly a prescription for a one-term presidency.
If the Republicans had nominated John Kasich or Paul Ryan, Hillary Clinton probably would be losing this election.