A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

27 August 2016

Ipsos poll puts Trump ahead in Montana
Gains in voter registration favor Bullock

Small sample Ipsos tracking poll puts Trump at 47 percent, Clinton at 40 percent, in Montana. This is from FiveThirtyEight, which reports a sample size of 100. The standard margin of error for n=100 is 9.8 percent, so take this poll with a pound, not a grain, of salt.

Two days ago, the Ipsos States of the Nation project tracking poll had Trump leading in Montana, but the confidence was low. Today, the tracking poll, which is internet based, reports insufficient data for a conclusion.

A separate Ipsos poll announced last night reports that nationwide, Clinton is leading Trump by just five points.

In a separate Reuters/Ipsos poll that includes candidates from small, alternative parties, Clinton leads the field by a smaller margin. Some 39 percent of likely voters supported Clinton in the four-way poll, compared with 36 percent for Trump, 7 percent for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and 3 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

Both polls were conducted online in English in all 50 states. They included 1,154 likely voters and have a credibility interval of 3 percentage points.

Note. “Credibility interval” is Bayesian lingo that laymen can reasonably consider as another way of saying “margin of error.” The MOE for n=1,154 is 2.88 percent, which rounds off to three percent in whole numbers. If you’re interested in how the Bayesian and Frequentist approaches differ, Jake VanderPlas’ Frequentism and Bayesianism: A Python-driven Primer provides an explanation.

Thus far, the Ipsos tracking poll is the only publicly available poll for the presidential election in Montana. The campaigns, of course, have polling data for the state, as, presumably, do large political action committees.

Latest voter registration increases in Montana favor Bullock

Slightly. Registrations increased by 2,927 from 9 to 26 August, an increase of 0.425 percent. Most of the new registrations were in Montana’s largest counties (Excel spreadsheet).

Earlier this month, I asked:

If in each county the same fraction of registered voters that cast votes for Steve Bullock in 2012 voted for him today, and Greg Gianforte received Rick Hill’s 2012 fraction, who would win?

Based on the 9 August registration numbers, the answer was Bullock, by 4,833 votes. Based on the 26 August numbers, Bullock’s lead is 4,872, an increase of 0.807 percent. For Bullock, this is reason for encouragement — the Democrats’ voter registration drives seem to be paying off — but not to whoop ‘n holler.

No public polls for governor, yet

Four years ago, polls for governor didn’t become available publicly until early September. Here’s the graph of those polls that I posted at the beginning of November, 2012. It shows a slightly better than 50 percent chance of Bullock’s winning.

bullock_v_hill_3_nov_2012-C

Bullock and Gianforte are, of course, doing plenty of polling, but the results are held so tightly that Edward Snowden couldn’t pry them loose. I suspect the campaigns’ internal polling shows Bullock up by a few points.

I’m fairly certain that the Montana Conservation Voters’ Action Fund’s half-million dollars voter canvass in Boeman, Livingston, and Missoula, is based on MCVAF commissioned polling.