A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

14–15 December 2016

All speculation on the Ryan Zinke front

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 Updated at 1031 MST, 15 December.  The Flathead Beacon reports that Trump’s transition confirmed Zinke was offered the position, and that Zinke accepted. Before becoming SecDOI, Zinke must be vetted and confirmed by the U.S. Senate. While confirmation is highly probable, it’s not a certainty. Zinke will not resign his seat in the U.S. House until he’s confirmed as SecDOI.

Previously. As of 1250 MST, yesterday’s report that President-Elect Donald Trump offered Rep. Ryan Zinke the post of Secretary of the Interior has not been confirmed by Trump or Zinke. The uncertainty did not deter Montana’s Democrats from issuing a statement assuming Zinke has been appointed to the job:

“Congressman Zinke has a tremendous responsibility ahead of him in protecting access to our public lands and clean water, and serving Indian Country. But it is important to remember less than 40 days ago, he asked Montana voters to re-hire him to be our voice in the U.S. House,” said Nancy Keenan, executive director of the Montana Democratic Party. “Yet again, his personal ambitions have trumped Montanans decision and voice. We wish him well and will continue to hold all leaders accountable to Montana values. Congressman Zinke is no exception.”

Even if Zinke accepts the nomination — he might thank Trump for the honor, but decide to stay in Congress and run for the Senate in 2018 — he must be vetted and confirmed by the Senate. That could take a couple of months.

Assuming Zinke does move to Interior, I suspect the special election to replace him would be held in spring, probably after the legislature adjourns. Although that might coincide with school board elections, combining school board elections with a special Congressional election, must not be legally or politically possible, although it would make a great deal of sense.

Meanwhile, there’s plenty of speculation about potential replacements for Zinke. At Big Sky Words, Greg Strandberg considers some possibilities. There will be a plentitude of Republicans seeking the job, and a scarcity of Democrats. The odds of a Democrat’s winning a special statewide election are perishingly low.

The news that Zinke may leave Congress, and the uncertainty it brings 11 days before Christmas, must be unsettling to his staff, who would be prudent to bring their résumés up to date. If their commander seals the SecDOI deal, they could be marching to the unemployment office.