19 December 2016

Republicans Ed Buttrey & Scott Sales say they want to replace Zinke

State Sens. Ed Buttrey (R-Great Falls) and Scott Sales (R-Bozeman) seek Republican nomination to replace Zinke in U.S. House. Mike Dennison has the story at KXLH.

Two assessments (one, two) of Buttrey by Logicosity are still online, as are two Logicosity posts about Sales (Speed and Mind Traps and A Task So Simple Almost Anyone Can Do It).

Dennison also reported that State Auditor-Elect Matt Rosendale, who lost to Zinke in the 2014 primary, and gubernatorial also-ran Greg Gianforte have been mentioned.

Scratch Rosendale. If he vacates the Auditor’s office, his replacement will be appointed by Gov. Bullock.

Montana House Speaker Austin Knudsen’s name has emerged, and Public Service Commission member, and former Secretary of State, Brad Johnson seldom misses an opportunity to run for office. At The Western Word, Mike Brown likes Buttrey, but reckons PSC Commissioner Travis Kavulla and GOP operative Aaron Flint would be good choices. Kavulla also occurred to me.

Buttrey, who can get things done, may have the edge if the GOP can overlook his willingness to work with Democrats to govern. Otherwise, Sales, whose far right bona fides are rock solid, probably would be considered the safer choice.

A Democratic candidate will be hard to find

No Democrat has won Montana’s U.S. House seat since 1994, and not with a majority since 1992. In 2000, Nancy Keenan came the closest. Last month, Denise Juneau, received 41 percent of the vote despite raising a bit more (in current dollars) than Keenan. In 2014, John Lewis received 40 percent of the vote against Ryan Zinke. In 2012, Kim Gillan, underfunded and overmatched, received 43 percent against Steve Daines.

Brown opined that Juneau and Jesse Laslovich, who lost to Rosendale last month might be good candidates. They’re good people, but I would be mighty surprised if either one volunteered to be the Democrats’ sacrificial lamb for 2017.

Brian Schweitzer’s name also has surfaced, but I do not believe he will run for office again. And I’m certain he has absolutely no interest in becoming a member of the minority in a 435-member legislative chamber.

Any Democrat who runs should understand that the Republican will win. The real reasons for stepping in front the of firing squad are upholding the Democratic Party’s battered honor, and preparing for a future run at a statewide office.

I suspect that a former legislator such as Pat Noonan or Chuck Hunter will be nominated. But I’m mindful that each morning, everyone who will serve in the 2017 legislature looks in the mirror and sees a future U.S. Senator, Congressman, Governor, or even a President.

And the party always is looking for a fresh, loyal, face with political potential and the ability to self-fund (self-funding is a vice when the other party’s candidate does it, but it’s a virtue when your party’s candidate does it).