A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.
I grew up in Minnesota, and thus have some experience with the precinct caucus system as was practiced there by the Democratic Farmer Labor Party. Iowa’s caucus system is similar.
Precinct caucuses reward motivation, enthusiasm, and organization. An insurgency with fired-up and well led activists can have disproportionate success at a caucus if more mainstream campaigns are caught napping and fail to get their activists to the precinct.
Among Democrats, Bernie Sanders’ supporters appear more enthused than Hillary Clinton’s supporters. Among Republicans, Cruz may have an organizational advantage, especially if he can enlist evangelical churches in his effort, while Trump’s supporters — well, who knows what Trump’s supporters will do?
Weather probably won’t be a factor. Iowans know how to drive in snow, and the Monday forecast for Des Moines contains nothing that should deter activists from attending the caucuses:
Monday. A slight chance of rain and snow after 5pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday Night. A chance of rain and snow before 9pm, then snow. Low around 29. Blustery, with an east northeast wind 8 to 13 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tuesday. Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 34. Windy, with an east northeast wind 20 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.