A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

31 January 2016

Sunday briefs

More on the SD-47 Democratic primary. According to Logicosity, former Rep. Joey Jayne is anti-choice and prone to taking extreme positions. Being anti-choice reduces a candidate’s chance of winning a Democratic primary. Democrats across Montana will be watching this primary closely.

Logicosity, incidentally, is analyzing legislative contests with an insider’s knowledge and acumen.

Confirmation bias and the Finicum shooting video. The FBI released aerial video of the shooting of LaVoy Finicum in the belief it would confirm the official version of why he was shot. Instead, much to the FBI’s surprise and dismay, the video, which many find ambiguous, has raised doubts that law enforcement authorities are telling the truth. What caused law enforcement to misjudge the public’s reaction so badly?

Most likely, confirmation bias, the tendency to resolve ambiguous information in a way that confirms what one already knows or believes. The law enforcement officers reviewing the video either did not recognize the video’s ambiguity, or if they did, decided that because one interpretation conformed with the reports from the field, the video confirmed the official account. They were unable set aside what they knew about the shooting, and about law enforcement procedures, and ask “what does this video, and this video alone, this video in isolation, tell me?”

Killing Finicum, and releasing a video that raised as many questions as it answered, has made persuading the four remaining Malheur occupiers to end the occupation more difficult. The last occupiers, leaderless, frightened, alone, and increasing detached from reality, fear and do not trust the FBI. The FBI, in turn, which most certainly does not want another shooting, seems to be hardening its position. One solution to the impasse would be allowing the holdouts to surrender to a respected third party (that won’t be Oregon Gov. Kate Brown).

Hillary ratchets up her contempt for single-payer health care. According to CBS News, she says a single-payer health care system will “never, ever come to pass.” She frames the issue as a pie-in-the-sky proposal versus pragmatism, and as poking a grouchy grizzly that could destroy the Affordable Care Act versus responsible incremental change. She does so with glee, with malice, with no shame. Her ambition is so great, and her sense of self worth so high, that she’ll say anything, tell any lie, to become President. If she were as good as she thinks she is, perhaps none of that would matter. But she’s not that good. She would make a better President than any of the Republicans running, but that’s an indictment of the Republicans, not a prediction she would make a good President.