7–8 July 2016
MT Democrats begin major organizing effort in Indian Country
Montana’s Democrats commenced a major organizing effort in Indian Country with the hiring of Amy Croover as the director of the party’s Native Vote Program. Reports Democratic spokesperson Kirstin Cates:
Croover comes to the Montana Democrats most recently from Portland where she worked as a policy coordinator for Metro. But prior to that, the Salish Kootenai College graduate worked on Sen. Jon Tester’s campaign in 2006 and spent the next seven years as his Native American Liaison. Her bachelor’s degree is in environmental science and she is finishing her master’s degree in public administration from Portland State University.
Croover is hiring field organizers (job description).
Turning out the Indian vote is critical for Democrats, and is not always easy. According to a 27 June Associated Press story:
During the 2014 primary, about 30 percent of voters in Glacier County precincts with high concentrations of Native Americans cast ballots, according to data Monroe compiled. As a whole, turnout was 45 percent across the county.
At the Rocky Boy Indian Reservation, east of the Blackfeet reservation, it was even worse: In three predominantly Native precincts, only 81 ballots were cast out of 1,566 — or just 5 percent of registered voters.
Native Americans account for about 8 percent of Montana’s 1 million residents, mostly hailing from the state’s 12 tribal nations. Only Alaska, Oklahoma, South Dakota and New Mexico have higher proportions of Native citizens.
There are six Indian majority state representative legislative districts — often referred to as reservation districts — and three Indian majority state senate districts in Montana.
According to the 2010 Census, Indians comprise 7.94 percent of Montana’s population, but only 6.52 percent of Montana’s voting age population. The difference is due to the age structure of the Indian demographic, and results in significantly fewer persons of voting age in the reservation districts compared to the other districts in the state.
Because the reservation districts are comparable to all other districts in overall population, upon which the districts are base, but have smaller populations of eligible voters, Montana’s Indians could have lost representation in the legislature if the plaintiff in Evenwel v. Abbott had succeed in their attempt to base apportionment on voting eligible population instead of on total population.
In 2014, Democrats won five of the six reservation house districts. In 2016, no Republican filed for any reservation house district. Not having a Republican candidate in these districts could depress the turnout to the benefit of the Republicans.
Republican Rep. G. Bruce Myer (Box Elder) is running against former Rep. Frank Smith (D-Popular) for Senate District 16. I think Smith may have a slight edge, but he needs to run harder than a man who thinks the sheriff is gaining on him.
And in Senate District 21, Democratic Rep. Carolyn Pease-Lopez is running against Republican businessman Jason Small (Busby), who outpolled her in the 2016 primary 1,241 to 1,155. This is coal country. Energy issues will be major factors in deciding the election. According to Logicosity’s analysis, Small is a bona fide threat to win the seat:
South-central/ south-eastern Montana – Senate District #21. (Stewart-Peregoy). Geographically, this seat should favor the D’s; it’s what observers generally refer to as a “reservation” district. However, the profile of Jason Small, the R candidate, makes for an intriguing match-up with Representative Carolyn Pease-Lopez.
He is a member of the Northern Cheyenne tribe and a union boilermaker official at the Colstrip operation, making him an unusually appealing R candidate, at least on paper. Steve Daines, known for courting the Native American vote in coal country, is doing his best to boost Small’s profile.