15 June 2016
Senate District 3: a tale of three turnouts
Senate District 3 (map), comprising House Districts 5 and 6, runs from north of Whitefish to northern Kalispell. In last week’s Republican primary, Rep. Keith Regier, a resident of HD-6, defeated Don Kaltschmidt, a resident of HD-5, by 106 votes, 1,851 to 1,745. Kaltschmidt prevailed in HD-5 by 97 votes, but lost HD-6, the more conservative house district, by 203 votes.
Although HD-5 has more registered voters than HD-6, the turnout in HD-6 was considerably higher than in HD-5 (see table below). The turnout fell as voters went down the ballot (see graph below). For those wondering, I did not find evidence of a Democratic crossover to help Kaltschmidt.
The estimated number of registered voters for 2010, which I’ve rounded to two significant figures, assumes that the registered voter to voting age population ratio for Flathead and Lake Counties is the same as for all of Montana.
Close elections, incidentally, are hard on the losers. Kaltschmidt, I suspect, is an unhappy man who is wondering what small thing he could have done, but didn’t, that would have lifted him to victory. And it’s possible (but not likely) there was something more he could have done that would have won the election for him. But a closer analysis suggests that he came as close as he did because he did so many things right. He challenged the current Montana House Majority Leader, a man with the experience of four legislative and several school board elections, and the support of powerful economic interests — and came within 106 votes of beating him. That’s not the outcome Kaltschmidt sought, but objectively, it was no mean accomplishment. He did well, very well.