A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

2 March 2016

Hillary and the black Democratic primary/caucus vote

Hillary Clinton did especially well in the deep south Confederate states on Super Tuesday, winning by landslides in Alabama and Georgia, and by 60–40 or better margins in Arkansas, Texas, Virginia, and Tennessee. She also won by a landslide in South Carolina’s primary on Saturday.

Exit polls report she’s winning the black vote by eight or nine to one. I therefore decided to plot her percentage of the primary or caucus vote as a function of the black percentage of the voting eligible population for these states, using VEP data from 2012. Not surprisingly, there’s a solid correlation:

Now, a couple of caveats. The regression equation suggests a strength of correlation that probably doesn’t really exist. Although an important factor, race is just one factor — and my analysis looks at only one race. Moreover, Nevada and Texas have significant Hispanic/Latino populations. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnic, not a racial, grouping, approximately half of which self-identifies as white. Therefore, take this graph’s r-squared statistic with a shaker of salt, and be wary of using it to win cocktail party debates. Still, it’s interesting, which is why I’m publishing it.