A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

31 May 2016

Jayne v. France — the Democratic primary in Senate District 47

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Senate District 47, which stretches from north Missoula to Polson (map), is a long shot for a Democrat — but in a presidential year, not an impossible shot. Two attorneys, Tom France of Missoula, and former state representative Joey Jayne of Arlee, for the Democratic nomination. So far, France has raised six times as much money (campaign finance table) as Jayne, often a good indication of how much support a candidate has and how hungry he is for a win.

I’ll begin with my 30 January 2016 report on the race. After that, I’ll present information on the money in the campaign. I’ll follow with some observations on the say-little-to-nothing-on-the-issues websites the candidates have inflicted on us, and conclude with some comments from the Logicosity blog.

First published at Flathead Memo on 30 January 2016

Democratic primary battle developing in Senate District 47. That’s the district (map, district snapshot-PDF, Indian majority districts map-PDF) that stretches from Missoula to Polson, comprising HD-93 on the north and HD-94 on the south. Termed-out Rep. Daniel Salomon (R-Ronan), who current represents HD-93, is running for the Republican nod for SD-47. Rep. Kimberely Dudik (D-Missoula) is running for re-election in HD-94, which she won by just 48 votes in 2014. Facing off for the Democratic nomination are Missoula attorney Tom France, and former Rep. Joey Jayne, St. Ignatius, also an attorney. Jayne consistently introduced legislation to repeal the death penalty, which is a double plus on my scorecard.

In 2014, more Republican than Democratic votes were cast in SD-47, but a strong Democratic candidate running a strong campaign with a strong get out the vote operation might have a chance in 2016.

sd47_2014

The voting age population in HD-4 was 25 percent American Indian (download spreadsheet) in the 2010 Census. That could provide an advantage for Jayne in the Mission Valley. France (whom I know; he did the legal work on Conner v. Burford) may have an advantage in Missoula, but he’s off to a slow start; no website yet. Both would make excellent legislators.

Campaign finance. Jayne has given her campaign $1,641 of the $1,925 she’s raised. Only seven individuals have donated to her campaign. France has raised $13,615, loaning himself $2,000 to get started. His list of contributors reads like a Who’s Who of Montana’s environmental community, and contains former legislators.

In the table below, I’ve noted a $38 anomaly in Jayne’s C-5 campaign finance reports. Although she may need to file an amended report, I don’t consider the anomaly serious.

On 6 May, Greg Strandberg at Big Sky Words looked at campaign finances for SD-47.

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Candidate websites. France has a Facebook page, and a standard website. The latter does not have an issues age. If there is an issues section on his Facebook page, I have yet to find it. Jayne’s website presents information on her credentials, but also lacks an issues page. In these situations, I consider a candidate’s silence on the issues as a tacit embrace of his political party’s platform. Download 2014 Montana Democratic Platform (PDF).

Unfortunately, the platform of the Montana Democratic Party is increasing built of Rorschach planks in the hope that no matter what what voters believe, they will see the Democratic platform as consistent with their positions on the issues.

The Valley Journal’s 18 May story on SD-47’s primaries does report on the candidates’ stands on some issues.

On 27 January, the website Logicosity reported that Jayne’s record might be problematic for some Democrats:

It is highly unlikely that Jayne will be the lone D entrant. After serving four terms in the House (2001-2009), Jayne lost races for three different offices by large margins (1) District Court Judge in 2008 (58 percent to 42), (2) a Senate primary in 2010 (57-43) and (3) Justice of the Peace in 2014 (65-35).

Joey is a bright Native American woman who is prone to take extreme positions. Because of her pro-life and spotty voting records, couple with her dismal performance in recent elections, the D’s will work hard (but, discretely) to find a more suitable candidate. [The post is no longer on the internet. Fortunately, I made a copy.]

Today's post at Logicosity predicts that France will win the Democratic primary, but have a very tough race against Republican Rep. Dan Salomon. I agree.