A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

3 November 2016

Meet Montana’s most endangered Democratic legislator

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Zac Perry

Updated. Democrat Zac Perry won HD-3 (map) in 2014 with a 48-vote plurality over incumbent Republican Jerry O’Neil. Libertarian Chris Colvin received 138 votes. Perry, who received 48.6 percent of the vote, was the only Democratic candidate for Montana’s house of representatives to win with less than a majority. This year, no Libertarian is on the ballot for HD-3. That probably makes Perry the most endangered Democratic incumbent in Montana, and may be why Edward R. Burrow at Logicosity thinks he’ll lose.

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Taylor Rose

Perry’s Republican opponent is Taylor Rose, an affable but far right political operative who is a much stronger and smarter candidate than Jerry O’Neil. Although Rose is a tyro as a candidate, he’s not a newcomer to political campaigns. His political views and activities earned several posts on the Montana Cowgirl blog. The Flathead Beacon, Hungry Horse News, and Daily InterLake reported he swims far from the mainstream. And he’s been profiled on Flathead Memo.

This promises to be a close election, but don’t write off Perry just because there’s not a Libertarian on the ballot for HD-3. In the 2014 midterm election, an awful election for Democrats, Perry defeated an incumbent Republican legislator with a long record of legislative service. Perry did so by running much better in his district than the top of the ticket Democrats, Amanda Curtis and John Lewis.

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Democratic turnout should be much higher this year than in 2014. That can only help Perry, who is running his fourth campaign in his district and is well known and liked in his community. Top of the ticket statewide Democrat Steve Bullock was running around 45 percent in the Mason-Dixon and MSU Billings polls taken in early October (the only public polls available). Congressional candidate Denise Juneau was at 40 percent in the Mason-Dixon poll. If Perry outperforms them by 134 percent, his margin in 2014, he could receive a majority of the vote.