A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

20 October 2016

Bullock only Democrat to find good news in Lee’s Mason-Dixon poll

The Mason-Dixon poll commissioned by the Lee Newspapers has made this a demoralizing week for Montana’s Democrats. Trump leads Clinton decisively, Bullock is in a very tight election, Melissa Romano trails Elsie Arntzen for OPI, Sandefur is dead even with Juras, Denise Juneau is in the toaster, and Jesse Laslovich may be in the toaster. The poll’s findings on the contests for Secretary of State and Attorney General have not been released yet.

Governor: Bullock v. Gianforte. Maxon-Dixon has Bullock leading Gianforte by two points, 47 to 45 percent. That’s within the 3.1 percent margin of error. But the probability that Bullock leads Gianforte — which is what we really want to know — is 74 percent.

Bullock won with a narrow plurality in 2012 (map of counties wonspreadsheet of votes). If anything, Montana’s electorate has become more conservative since then, a rightward drift that neutralizes much of the advantage of incumbency. That Mason-Dixon puts Bullock only two points ahead does not surprise me. Moreover, the absence of any meaningful release of internal polls by Bullock and allied organizations such as the Democratic Governors Association tends to confirm the closeness of the race. If Bullock's internals showed him leading by double digits, his campaign would crow about it so loudly people would clap their hands over their ears to protect their auditory health.

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U.S. Representative in Congress: Zinke v. Juneau. Zinke leads Juneau 53–40, a whopping margin. The probability that Zinke is leading is virtually 100 percent. The poll has hit Juneau’s campaign hard, demoralizing staff and volunteers. It will discourage contributors. There’s no upside to it. And to make matters worse, the Billings Gazette just endorsed Zinke.

Democrats have not won this seat since 1994. If Juneau becomes the 11th consecutive Democrat to lose this election, nothing will have changed. But unlike the also-rans before her, can help Democrats up and down the ballot if her campaign’s efforts in Indian Country increase the turnout in reservation precincts.

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Montana State Auditor: Laslovich v. Rosendale. Mason-Dixon has Republican State Senator Matt Rosendale leading Democrat Jesse Laslovich, a former legislator and currently a high official in the state auditor’s department, by ten points, 43–33, with a whopping 24 percent undecided. The probability that Rosendale is leading is virtually 100 percent.

This caught me by surprise. Were Montana’s state auditor, the state’s regulator of insurance and securities, selected on the basis of professional credentials, Laslovich, an attorney with years of experience in the department, would be considered highly qualified for the job. Rosendale would not be considered qualified.

The disparity in qualifications is so large that if Rosendale is leading by ten points, it’s proof that (1) the voters are not paying close enough attention to this office and to the consequences of delivering it to a far-right Republican, and (2) the state’s rightward drift that’s hurting Bullock, a well regarded incumbent, is hurting non-incumbent Democrats even more. If the undecideds break for Laslovich overwhelmingly, he has a chance of winning. But it’s a chance on the order of throwing boxcars a dozen times in a row.

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Office of Public Instruction: Arntzen v. Romano. Republican Elsie Arntzen leads Democrat Melissa Romano 42–38, with 20 percent undecided. The probability that Arntzen is leading is 90 percent. Arntzen, a State Senator from Billings who ran in the 2014 Republican primary for the U.S. House, has political experience and statewide exposure. Romano, a schoolteacher, is a political tyro. Her strength is strong union backing. But that’s offset by her lack of political experience, and by personality characteristics that apparently make it hard for voters to conclude she’s a leader. If the undecideds break for her, Romano could win. She has a chance. But a chance on the order of rolling boxcars, not a good chance.

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Montana Supreme Court: Sandefur v. Juras. Although this is officially a nonpartisan election, it’s common knowledge that Sandefur is favored by Democrats, and Juras by Republicans, especially far right, pro-business, anti-stream access, Republicans.

Rate this a toss-up. Juras leads by one point, 31–30, with 39 percent undecided. The probability that Juras is leading is 62 percent. The high number of undecideds means a blizzard of negative advertising will be unleashed on the voters between now and 8 November.

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How good is the Mason-Dixon poll? The firm is reputable. This poll live-sampled 1,003 likely voters calling both cell phones and landlines. The internal weighting of the poll probably differs from that used in 2012. All polls have a house effect, but we won’t know the size or direction of that effect until after the election.

We need more publicly available polls. As for the Mason-Dixon poll, it’s reasonable to equip it with large error bars, but unreasonable to dismiss it because past MD polls didn’t get it perfectly right.

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Probability of a ballot lead. Using the numbers from the Mason-Dixon poll, I calculated the probability using the online calculator at the American Research Group’s website. Generally, the probability that Smith leads Jones is a more useful statistic than the margin of error.