31 October 2016
Montana Cowgirl’s average of secret polls
This morning, Montana Cowgirl released a new average of polls for Montana’s gubernatorial election:
Bullock 48.1
Gianforte 41.5
Dunlap 3.8
Undecided 6.6
Which polls have been averaged? And how? That’s Cowgirl’s little secret:
This average includes a collection of polls from various candidates and groups as well as the two public polls that came out recently. The privately done polls were not commissioned for the purpose of making them public, but rather for strategic information. I can’t publish these internal numbers individually because I was told the results on the condition that I not release this information. However, I feel it’s okay to release an average. And anyone that doubts the Cowgirl Polling Average, do so at your peril because the polls being conducted privately are from some of the best pollsters in the country.
An hour ago, I left the following comment at Cowgirl’s blog:
It may be that the average of these secret polls is right on the money. But because they are secret polls, readers are being asked to accept the average on a “trust me, I’m right,” basis. We do not know how many polls have been averaged, when the polls were taken, the size of the samples, the composition of the sampled populations, the methodology, the names of the pollsters, the wording of the questions, or who paid for the polling. That’s vital information for evaluating the average.
Like Nate Silver, Sam Wang, and others, I only trust the averages of polls that have been made public. I urge the readers of this blog to think long and hard before placing any faith in this blog’s average of secret surveys.
In my judgement, Cowgirl’s average of secret polls is the Bullock campaign’s attempt to manipulate public opinion in Montana.