2 September 2016

Candidates removed from ballot had perishingly little hope of winning

Four legislative candidates, two from the Flathead, were removed from the general election ballot this week for failing to file required reports. None had any reasonable expectation of winning.

Democrat Cody Cascazza, an 18-year-old high school student from Columbia Falls, had filed for Senate District 2 (map), a seat currently represented by Republican Dee Brown, who in 2012, in a district with markedly different boundaries, defeated David Fern 5,227–4,569.

SD-2 now comprises House Districts 3 and 4. In 2014, Democrat Zac Perry defeated incumbent Republican Jerry O’Neil and Libertarian Chris Colvin, with a plurality, 1,558–1,510–138. In HD-4 in 2014, incumbent Republican Keith Regier defeated Democrat Melanie Knadler 2,568–916. Overall in 2014, SD-2’s voters favored Republicans to Democrats to Libertarians 4,078–2,474–138.

Fern is running for House District 5 (map) this year against 18-year-old Republican Chet Billi. Keith Regier is running for Senate District 3 (map) against Democrat Melissa Hartman. Regier’s son, Matt, is running for HD-4 (map) against Democrat Deborah Gentry.

Libertarian Shannon Hanson, a former Democrat, had filed for House District 6 (map), the deeply conservative district west of Whitefish that’s currently represented by Republican Carl Glimm, who’s running for re-election. In 2014, Glimm was re-elected, defeating Democrat David Fischlowitz 2,795–1,170. His Democratic opponent this year is Lisa Morrow.

Democrat Tracy Heilman, Billings, had filed for House District 54, a seat now held by Republican Jeff Essmann, who is running for re-election. Essmann won 2,598–1,195–207 in 2014, with the Libertarian coming in third. Essmann now is unopposed.

Democrat Mary Meyer, Townsend, had filed for Senate District 35, currently represented by Republican Scott Sales, who is seeking re-election. Sales was elected to Senate District 34 in 2012, prior to the reapportionment that took effect in 2014, defeating Democrat Michael Comstock 7,994–4,444. SD-25 comprises HD-69 and HD-70, both won by Republicans in 2014 by a combined vote of 6,245–2,337.

Democrats and Libertarian Hanson were pretty much on their own in these districts. Providing more than token support for these candidates would have been misallocation of the Democrat Party’s resources, which are limited and must be spent where they will do the most to produce Democratic victories.

The Democratic Party might be wise to reconsider its recent policy of trying to find a candidate for every position on the ballot. That approach is defensible in theory, but it tends to work hardships on the candidates in hopeless contests, and diverts resources from winnable elections. A ballot full of Democrats is not a strategy for winning elections. It’s a public relations effort to obviate editorials chiding Democrats for not working harder to recruit candidate.

In the meantime, thanks to Cascazza, Hanson, Heilman, and Meyer, for stepping forward, and a wish for good luck in the future.