22 September 2016

Riots in Charlotte will tip North Carolina to Trump

A black policeman shot and killed a black man in Charlotte, NC, two days ago. The dead man’s family said he was brandishing a book. The police said he was brandishing a firearm. After viewing the videos of the shooting, both the family and police say the videos by themselves are inconclusive. The police refuse to release the videos, citing a multitude of excuses. There’s good coverage at the Charlotte Observer.

As is always the case, first reports are incomplete and frequently wrong. Objective observers withhold judgment until competent investigators establish all the relevant facts. That’s the responsible reaction to these kind of events.

The popular reaction, however, is rioting and accusations of police brutality. Chaos has replaced order and civility in North Carolina’s Queen City. Charlotte now is under a curfew, at least one rioter is dead, large employers in the city are telling their workers to stay home, and residents are rightly fearful for their safety.

This probably helps Donald Trump, the law ‘n order candidate. FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast has Trump up 1.3 points in the state. More rioting will boost his margin. He needs North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, and now it seems likely he will win them.