30 December 2017 — 1356 mdt
Will Montana gain a seat in the U.S. House after the 2020 census?
That could happen, but the probability that it will happen is low unless Congress increases the size of the U.S. House of Representatives from 435 to approximately 700 members.
The day after Christmas, Election Data Services released its analysis of the effect of population trends on the post 2020 census reapportionment of Congress, using U.S. Census Bureau data. EDS examined three scenarios. Under two, Montana stays a one-Representative state. Under the third, Montana gains a seat in the U.S. House, but just barely.
Election Data Services created three different methodologies to project the 2017 data forward nearly three years to 2020:
- a short-term projection method for the trend occurring in 2016-2017;
- a middle term methodology using the 2014-2017 trend, and;
- a long-term projection for 2010-2017.
All three methodologies added the state of Arizona, along with a second seat for Florida and maybe a third seat for Texas, to the list of states noted above that will gain one or more seats by 2020. The list of losing states will expand to also include Alabama, Ohio, and Rhode Island by the time the Census is taken in 2020.
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The three methodologies diverge at one important point, whether Montana will gain a second seat and keep Texas from obtaining a third additional seat. The long-term and mid-term methodologies show Texas would gain three seats by 2020 and Montana would stay at a single at large seat. But the short-term methodology points towards Texas having only two additional seats and the state of Montana securing seat #434 (its second seat) by just 2,493 people to spare. [Emphasis added.]
Montana was allocated one seat in the U.S. House upon becoming a state in 1889, gaining a second seat after the 1910 census, the last time Congress enlarged the chamber’s membership (see table). The second seat was lost after the 1990 census, setting up an electoral showdown between incumbent representatives Pat Williams (D) and Ron Marlenee (R) in 1992. Williams won, was re-elected by a plurality in 1994, and retired in January, 1997.
In 1996, Republican Rick Hill defeated Democrat Bill Yellowtail, and the seat has been held by Republicans ever since. Denny Rehberg followed Hill, Steve Daines followed Rehberg, Ryan Zinke followed Daines, and Greg Gianforte slugged his way to the seat in 2017.
Montana’s at large U.S. House district is the nation’s most populous, and second to Alaska’s in area. It’s attractive as a stepping stone to higher office, but not as an office for a career because of the onerous logistics of running for re-election.
Increasing the size of the U.S. House is the surest way for Montana to obtain a second seat there. Article I, Section 2.3, of the U.S. Constitution requires that each member of the House represent at least 30,000 persons, but does not impose an upper limit on the number of members. Although Congress has held the membership at 435 since the 1910 census, the membership can be increased by a simple act of Congress. Applying the rough rule of thumb that the size of national legislatures tends to approximate the cube root of a nation’s population would set the U.S. House at approximately 690 members.
Congress is not likely to increase the size of the House anytime soon. Therefore, Montana’s best strategy for obtaining another House seat is aggressively supporting immigration and procreation.