24 January 2017

Zinke delay, women’s marches, HB-268, and pipelines

Zinke’s confirmation as Secretary of the Interior delayed due to a postponed committee meeting. Yesterday, without explanation, which may be routine, the Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee announced that today’s business session was postponed indefinitely. In this context, indefinitely means a new date for the meeting has not been set. Zinke’s nomination, and that of Rick Perry, former governor of Texas, for Secretary of Energy, were on the agenda. It’s best not to read too much into the postponement, which most likely is nothing more than the consequence of a scheduling issue.

Women are not a monolithic gender based voting bloc, and the organizers’ crowd size estimates for Sunday’s marches need to be discounted by 40 percent. At Vox, Tara Golshan reports on The women who helped Donald Trump win. At FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver looks at crowd size estimates in The Long March Ahead for Democrats. Applying his 40 percent discount to the march in Helena, whose organizers pegged at 10,000, yields a turnout of 6,000. These are clip, save, and study, articles.

Assaulting health care workers and first responders already is against the law. That has not stopped the Montana Nurses Association for supporting HB-268, “An Act Solely Creating the Felony Offense of Assault on a Health Care Worker or Emergency Responder.” Rep. James O’Hara (R-Fort Benton) is carrying the bill, which was heard yesterday in the judiciary committee. Proponents argue that the bill will deter assaults.

In the last 24 hours, I’ve heard from ER nurses with decades of experience in handling combative patients. They scoff at the notion that making what already is against the law more against the law will deter stressed-out people from throwing a punch in the ER. I agree. HB-268 is no more needed than a bill against assaulting referees was needed when one was introduced some years back by a legislator from Missoula. Flathead Memo’s recommendation: vote against HB-268.

President Trump issues executive order resurrecting the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines. This should not come as a surprise. Although exhumed, the Keystone XL proposal is a long way from getting a green light for construction in the United States. But construction of the Dakota Access pipeline is almost finished. Trump’s order could result in fairly swift approval of the proposed deep tunnel crossing of the Missouri River near Cannonball, ND. There’ll be a blizzard of lawsuits, but I don’t think the opponents of the pipeline have a strong legal case. Look for a settlement that adds safeguards to the pipeline and perhaps establishes a prepaid cleanup and mitigation fund for spills.

When the Dakota Access is green lighted to cross the Missouri, look for a heavy security presence that probably includes national guard units, and a determination by state and federal officials to prosecute the “direct action” opponents of the pipeline — the rock throwers, vandals, arsonists — for felonies that require mandatory imprisonment.