A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

8 May 2017 — 1149 mdt

Notes on the special congressional election

Another poll confirms that the Quist-Gianforte gap is narrowing. A Garin-Hart-Yang poll conducted 25–27 April for the Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic group, found Republican Greg Gianforte leading Democrat Rob Quist by six points, 44 to 38 percent, among midterm voters who said they will vote in the 25 May special congressional election in Montana.

The sampling margin of error for GHY’s 601-person sample is four percent. The probability that Gianforte is leading is 93 percent.

Among “enthusiastic” voters, Gianforte’s lead was just one point. If I were trying to raise money or pep up volunteers, I would cite the enthusiastic number. But because 95 percent of the voters polled said they intended to vote, and an unenthusiastic vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic vote, I’m going with the 44–38 percent margin.

The GHY one-pager contains cherry picked data arranged to present the best case for Quist. It’s partly propaganda, so curb your enthusiasm.

New DCCC anti-Gianforte ad is an exercise in political blackjacking. If Bozeman businessman Greg Gianforte were a refugee from Syria, the Montana and National Democratic Parties would welcome him to Montana with open arms. But because he’s an American who once lived in New Jersey, and who earned hundreds of millions of dollars in Montana, the DCCC’s message makers consider him a form of life lower than the beheaders of ISIS. Here’s the DCCC’s latest effort to pull politics deeper into the gutter:

Don’t send the DCCC any money. It doesn’t know how to spend it wisely.