26 May 2017 — 0725 mdt

Special election’s turnout almost identical to 2014 election’s turnout

Would Rob Quist have defeated Greg Gianforte in a Presidential election year? That’s certainly possible. Steve Bullock defeated Gianforte in an election year. But the electorate that voted in Montana’s special congressional election was Montana’s midterm electorate, which is smaller and much more Republican than Montana’s Presidential year electorate. Here are the salient number from Flathead Memo’s updated spreadsheet for Montana’s turnout for 1920 through the present:

In 2014, the percentage of absentee ballots returned was 12 percent higher than in the 2017 special election, although 12 percent more of the ballots were cast by absentee ballots. The registration rolls may be bloated. And given the dismal tone of the campaign, many who received absentee ballots may have not voted as a way of expressing their disgust.