3 May 2018 — 0903 mdt
Will Tester weather Trump’s “You kept me from getting my way” tantrum?
President Donald Trump is mad as hell that his choice to the the Veterans Administration, Admiral Ronny Jackson, was sunk by the due diligence of Sen. Jon Tester, among other — and Trump’s launched a holy war against Tester. He demands Tester’s resignation from the senate. His cronies are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads attacking Tester. And Trump himself suggests he may fly to Montana to deliver speeches damning Tester.
Will presidential rage rally Republicans to defeat Tester on 6 November? Not likely, as Montana State University political science professor David Parker noted at the Monkey Cage, Trump’s threats are unlikely to hurt Sen. Jon Tester. In fact, they may help him. in yesterday’s Washington Post.
It’s unlikely that Tester will lose reelection. Here’s why: Since his election in 2006, Tester has steadily worked on behalf of military veterans. One of his first major legislative accomplishments was a successful floor amendment that increased the mileage reimbursement rates for veterans who traveled for medical care. And that was just the beginning. As Tester gained seniority, he kept scoring wins for veterans: a new V.A. clinic in Billings; funding for a veterans home in Butte, which has long been a priority for southwest Montana; and increased compensation for disabled veterans and their families. Most recently, the president signed into law Tester’s bill extending the Veterans Choice Program, which allows veterans to receive health care from local providers. According to Vanderbilt University’s Center for Effective Lawmaking, Tester was the fourth-most-effective Senate Democrat in the 114th Congress. In fact, Tester’s first television ad — which began running in mid-March — highlights the 13 bills Tester pushed that were signed by Trump.
At The Conversation, University of Montana journalism professor Lee Banville ponders, but doesn’t quite answer, whether Trump’s tempest will help a teabagger defeat Tester this fall:
The dust-up with President Trump is a moment of uncertainty out here in Montana, though. Is this when Tester becomes a national Democrat and therefore less electable here in an increasingly red state? Can Republicans finally get more traction with their argument that Tester is really a typical Democrat in a Republican state? Or will Tester’s focus on pushing the VA to be better be the primary thing to stick in the minds of Montanans?
Banville notes that Tester’s a master of playing both ends against the middle:
Tester is an anomaly in modern American politics — a politician who regularly bucks his party’s leadership, often votes with Republicans and seeks to make politics about the needs of local residents rather than national parties.
That’s how Tester operates, but I’m less inclined than Banville to conclude that makes Tester an anomaly. Like Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Tester abides by Tip O’Neill’s wisdom, “All politics is local.” Do they buck their party’s leadership at times? Of course, and often with the leadership’s blessing and understanding that asserting independence from the Washington, D.C., establishment is critical to their being re-elected.
Tester’s due diligence on Admiral Jackson’s nomination was what we must, should, and do, expect of a Senator. Jackson could have stayed the course, defending himself against the allegations the senate was investigating. Instead, he declined to defend himself, a decision suggesting some of the allegations might be true. If Trump had vetted Jackson as thoroughly as most past presidents vetted their appointments, and as thoroughly as a president should vet appointments, Jackson never would have been nominated, and Tester’s doing his due diligence would not have incited Trump to throw a hissy fit.
As long as veterans continue to defend Tester for doing his job and continuing to look out for them, he’s not likely to lose votes because Donald Trump lost his temper. Instead, Tester’s likely to win more votes for keeping a level head and putting the interests of veterans and the nation before the petty political interests of the president.
Afterthought. Trump would have been a lot smarter if his nomination for head honcho of the V.A. had been Jon Tester. That would have placed competent leadership at the agency, and created an open senate seat in Montana that Democrats would have trouble winning. But that kind of maneuver is something that would occur only to an experienced politician. Trump is only an experienced bully.