29 August 2019 — 1453 mdt
House District 3 likely to revert to red
without Democrat Zac Perry on the ballot
Updated. HD-3 (map) Rep. Zac Perry announced yesterday on Facebook that he’s resigning his legislative seat effective 1 September. He’s enrolled in an out-of-state graduate program to earn his master’s degree, after which he plans to return to Montana to teach history to high school students. He has a B.A. in political science from Notre Dame.
Beginning in 2010, Perry ran for HD-3 five times, losing his first two elections, and winning his last three. He finally defeated incumbent Republican Jerry O’Neil, a popular get nothing serious done grandstander, in 2014, a disastrous year for Democrats, after redistricting produced a district slightly friendlier to Democrats.
Perry’s genial perseverance, quiet wit, regular guy persona, and respectful consideration of all points of view, proved a good fit for his district, which may have been growing weary of O’Neil’s colorful antics, such as demanding to be paid in gold, that produced headlines but didn’t better the lives of his constituents. Two years later, he defeated Taylor Rose, a staunch defender of white people, and in 2018 he defeated O’Neil again.
But Perry’s wins did not turn HD-3 blue. It remains a working class community that tends to vote for Republicans. Perry would have been a slight favorite to win a fourth term in 2020, but the Democratic candidate for the seat Perry is vacating will be the underdog next year, for HD-3 remains a deep, and unrepentantly, red district.
In the tables below, I’ve omitted the vote totals for third party candidates (all Libertarians for local and statewide elections) to reduce clutter. One school of thought holds that Libertarians subtract votes from Reublicans. Another school holds that Libertarians don’t vote when their candidate is not on the ballot. A libertarian was on the ballot in 2014, but not in 2016 and 2018. Perry won by a 48.6 percent plurality in 2014, and majorities in 2016 and 2018. I think he would have won a two-candidate election in 2014.
Montana is losing a fine young legislator and community leader. I wish him well in his new career, and give him my profound thanks for his work in the legislature.