9 February 2024
Is Matt Rosendale counting on Democratic crossover
votes to win the Republican senatorial primary?
By James Conner
The question. Why would a Republican — Matt Rosendale — representing a solidly Republican congressional district — Montana’s eastern district — and who lost convincingly to Democrat Jon Tester in 2018, give up a safe seat to challenge Tester again in 2024? I’ve asked myself that question for a year, always answering: Rosendale will come to his senses and run for re-election from his district.
I was wrong. He didn’tAccording to numerous reports from credible news media, Rosendale, 63, will announce this morning that he’s running for the GOP nomination for the senate. His major opponent: 38-year-old Tim Sheehy, a rich businessman from Gallatin County who has been campaigning for months, and according to some polls, now leads Rosendale two to one. His minor opponent: former MT SecST and PSC commissioner Brad Johnson. Could Johnson be a spoiler? We’ll find out.
More questions
So why is Rosendale surrendering a position with great job security for a risky run against an incumbent against whom he’s already lost? Why does he think he can win the nomination? And why does he think he can win the general election against Tester?
Some possible answers:
The nomination. Because he’s an anemic fundraiser, and because he’s already lost a senate election to Tester, Montana’s Democrats see Rosendale as a significantly weaker general election opponent than Sheehy. I share that conclusion, but I’m not part of the multi-million-dollar shadow campaign the Democrats are running against Sheehy and for Rosendale.
Rosendale, however, may be reckoning that the shadow campaign will generate enough Democratic crossover votes to win the primary, and that endorsements of Sheehy by Montana’s Sen. Daines, Rep. Zinke, and Gov. Gianforte won’t count for much. I have my doubts. Once Sheehy, who is running a much smarter campaign than Democrats and Rosendale’s camp will ever admit, starts attacking Rosendale, the congressman’s reputation will plummet like a rock in a vacuum. We can have 100 percent confidence that those attack ads already are in the can, ready for instant deployment by Sheehy. Above all, Montana’s Republicans want to win more than they want to nominate the most conservative man on the ballot.
Against Tester in November. In their 2018 contest, Tester prevailed by a majority. Turnout in 2018 was heavy, but not as heavy as turnout in 2020, the highest turnout election since 18-year-olds got the vote in 1972 (download turnout spreadsheet). And he’s no doubt mindful that former president Donald Trump, the GOP’s presumed candidate in 2024, received more votes in every Montana county in 2020 than in 2016 although 18 counties lost population after 2016 (download 2016-2020 comparison spreadsheet).
What’s next for Rosendale if he loses? He’s unlikely to reclaim his eastern district seat. Nor do I think he would try to do so. His judgment has bounds, but not his ambition. I think he’d look in the mirror and say, “I’m looking at the next governor of Montana.” And four years later, he’d take another look, smile, wink, and say, “Hello, Mr. President.” And after that? Watch your six, God.