10 February 2024 — 1642 mst
Follow-up on Rosendale’s senate run
By James Conner
“Et tu, Trump?”
Six years ago, President Donald Trump and his prairie dog shooting son swooped into Montana several times to campaign for Matt Rosendale, who nonetheless lost to incumbent Democrat Jon Test. Yesterday, Rosendale, surrendering his secure day job as Montana’s eastern district congressman, announced he is running for the senate again. But this time he won’t be running with Trump’s blessing. A few hours later, reports The Hill, Trump shivved Rosendale, endorsing Tim Sheehy, Montana Sen. Steve Daines’ choice to challenge Tester.
Trump called Sheehy an “American Hero” and noted his support from the GOP Senate campaign arm and its chair, Montana Sen. Steve Daines — but he stopped short of going after Rosendale.
“I also respect Matt Rosendale, and was very happy to Endorse him in the past – and will Endorse him again in the future should he decide to change course and run for his Congressional Seat,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
“But in this instance, Tim is the candidate who is currently best-positioned to DEFEAT Lazy Jon Tester, and Regain the Republican Majority in the United States Senate … America First Patriot Tim Sheehy has my Complete and Total Endorsement!” the former president said.
Rosendale’s decision remains inexplicable to me. I hope Montana’s political reporters will unearth his reasoning and the assumptions on which it is based.
A crowded GOP primary to replace Rosendale in the eastern district
Meanwhile, at least six candidates are running for the Republican nomination for the congressional seat Rosendale is vacating:
- Joel Krauttner, Billings, a former GOP legislator.
- Kyle Austin, a Billings man whose website won't load.
- Stacy Zinn, Billings, a former DEA agent.
- Rick Holden, Glendive, a former GOP legislator.
- Elsie Arntzen, Billings, Montana’s current head of public education.
- Troy Downing, Montana’s first term state auditor.
Ken Bogner, a third term legislator from Miles City has been identified as someone with interest in the position, but those reports are highly speculative.
So are reports that former representative Denny Rehberg, now 68, may attempt a comeback. He may be sending up trial balloons, but I think the results will be discouraging.
Arntzen and Downing have not filed with Montana’s Secretary of State, but announced their candidacies on X (formerly known as Twitter) today.
Thus far, only Kevin Hamm has filed for the Democratic nomination for the eastern district. Hamm, who learned much from his campaign for the Montana Public Service Commission in 2022, is running a professional, issues oriented, campaign.
A six-candidate primary begs for ranked choice voting
Montana’s elections are won by the candidate receiving the most votes. That’s a majority in two-person races, but only a plurality in races with three or more candidates. A six-person race can be won with only one-sixth plus one of the vote, approximately 16.78 percent. That’s not a mandate, and the winner could be a crackpot with just enough of a following to win. Ranked choice voting ensures that the winner has the solid support of a majority of the voters.
Unfortunately, a group of Republicans, some former legislators, propose to replace our current system with a top-four primary in which all candidates — Democrats, Republicans, Indies, Greens, Libertarians; all 3rd parties — run. Were a top-four in place now, there would be at least seven candidates (add Kev Hamm) in the eastern district primary.
Montana’s 2023 legislature outlawed RCV in Montana. That law, based on ignorance, misinformation, and illogic, can and should be repealed.