9 January 2020 — 0523 mst

Possible contested legislative primaries in the Flathead

Filing for political office in Montana opens today, and closes on 9 March. In the Flathead, there may be contested primaries for both major parties, and possibly for the Libertarian Party, which is qualified for the ballot and usually receives one to six percent of the vote.

Here’s my assessment of the Flathead.

House District 3 (urban-rural, Columbia Falls, map). An open seat. Currently represented by Democrat Debo Powers who was appointed to replace three-term Democrat Zac Perry after he resigned last September. Powers is running. Fellow Democrat Sylvia Powers filed a C-1 in early November. The district is heavily Republican and may revert to red without Perry on the ballot. Expect a strong Republican to file for the seat.

House District 4 (rural, south of Columbia Falls, map). Currently represented by second term Republican Matt Regier. HD-4 is deep red and will elect the Republican nominee.

House District 5 (mostly urban, Whitefish, map). Currently represented by second term Democrat Dave Fern, who’s running for re-election in the Flathead’s only district that leans blue. He may receive token Republican or Libertarian opposition.

House District 6 (rural-suburban, NW Kalispell & SW of Whitefish, map). An open seat, incumbent Republican Carl Glimm being termed out. Amy Regier, sister of Matt Regier and daughter of SD-3 incumbent Republican Keith Regier, filed a C-1 last year, so expect three Regiers on the ballot. HD-6 is deep red and will elect the Republican nominee.

House District 7 (urban, Kalispell, map). Theoretically a purple district, Democrats last won the seat in 2008 when Cheryl Steenson beat incumbent Craig Witte by less than 20 votes. After that, the district turned red, sending Steve Lavin, and for the last three elections, Frank Garner, to the legislature. Garner is running again. He’s popular in his district, not popular among the teabagger caucus of Republican legislators, and is considered reasonable by Democrats, many of whom may be voting for him. Flathead’s Democrats should not concede this seat to Garner, but may end up doing so either by not fielding a candidate or by fielding a token candidate.

House District 8 (suburban-urban, west Kalispell, map). Currently represented by first term Republican John Fuller, who’s running again. This is another deep red district that will send the Republican nominee to Helena. No Democrat filed for the seat in 2018, and the seat may be ceded to Fuller again.

House District 9 (rural-suburban, Evergreen, map). Informally known as the chainsaw precincts for the large numbers of timber workers living there, HD-9 is a deep red blue collar area currently represented by first term Republican David Dunn. He’s running for re-election and will win. A Democrat was on the HD-9 ballot last year, and may be on the 2020 ballot.

House District 10 (rural-suburban, Bigfork, map). Another deep red district, currently represented by three-term Republican Mark Noland. If he runs for re-election, he’ll win a fourth term in Helena.

House district 11 (rural-suburban, Somers-Lakeside, map). A large, sprawling, wealthy, and highly conservative district, currently represented by Republican Derek Skees, who has served two terms in HD-11 and one term in old HD-4 (Whitefish). In June, 2018, Republican Dee Kirk Boon filed a C-1 for HD-11 and has been raising money from Republican legislators. Skees announced last summer that he would run again, so this could be a fascinating, and expensive, primary that could turn on crossover votes from Democrats.

Senate District 2 (rural-urban, HDs 3 and 4, map). A deep Red open seat as Republican incumbent Dee Brown is termed out. Norman Nunnally, a leader of the pro-logging and motorized recreation Montanans for Multiple Use, filed a C-1 for the office in July, 2018. Nunnally could receive a primary challenge. A token Democrat may file for SD-2, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening.

Senate District 3 (rural-suburban-urban, HDs 5 and 6, map). Currently represented by Republican Keith Regier, who’s running for a second term, SD-3 is not quite as red as SD-2, but it’s red enough that a Democrat’s carrying it is less likely than Trump’s never telling another lie. If there is Democratic opposition, it will be token.

Senate District 6 (rural-suburban-urban, Polson to South Kalispell, HDs 11 and 12, map). Currently represented by Republican Al Olszewski, M.D., who is running for governor (and running well behind Gianforte and Fox). Thus the seat is open. Last summer, termed-out Speaker of the Montana House Greg Hertz (R-Polson) filed a C-1 for SD-6. It’s possible that Olszewski will conclude he can’t beat Gianforte and Fox, fold his gubernatorial tent, and file for re-election, but probably not likely. Olszewski is gunning for statewide office, has been for years, and may not want to return to being one of 50 in the MT Senate. Will a Democrat file for SD-6? Stranger things have happened.